bayesRatings

Chargers at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Jan 11 · 7:15 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final LAC 3 – NE 16
← NFL / Jan 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC03003
NE063716
Team box
LAC·NE
207
total yards
381
120
passing yards
235
87
rushing yards
146
17
first downs
19
1-10
third downs
4-11
1
turnovers
2
27:45
time of possession
32:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin HerbertLAC19/3115900
Drake MayeNE17/2926811
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Justin HerbertLAC10570
Drake MayeNE10660
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ladd McConkeyLAC3320
Rhamondre StevensonNE3750

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +13
LAC +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 13 · LAC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 37%, NE 63% · Updated Jan 11

Expected margin
NE by 6.4
Expected score
NE 23.9 – 17.5 LAC
Expected total
41.4
ChargersThe matchupPatriots
+170Our fair odds−170
17.5Expected points23.9
+0.23Power rating+0.54
21.6Points / game28.8
20.0Allowed / game18.8
334Total yards / game379
5.2Yards / play6.2
212Passing yards / game250
11−6Season record14−3
7−3Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · NE chance
Our model fair37.0%63.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers+17037%————
NENew England Patriots−17063%————
SpreadNE by 6.4
LACLos Angeles Chargers+6.4our margin————
NENew England Patriots−6.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.4
Over41.4our total————
Under41.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 6.4 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: 2%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 4%New England Patriots by 18 points: 2%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 2%New England Patriots by 21 points: 2%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 2%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: 1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 2%New England Patriots by 32 points: 1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 1%New England Patriots by 35 points: 1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 45 points: <1%New England Patriots by 46 points: <1%
← LAC wins byNE wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more61%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more45%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more37%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.4 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.568%
Total over 41.548%
Total over 48.528%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 70% completions, 249 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 77% completions, 276 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·NE
Jan 4 at DEN
last game
Jan 4 vs MIA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
LAC·NE
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
21.6
points / game
28.8
20.0
points allowed / game
18.8
11−6
season record
14−3
6−3
home record
6−3
5−3
away record
8−0
L2
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
9−1
334
total yards / game
379
5.2
yards / play
6.2
212
passing yards / game
250
122
rushing yards / game
129
19.5
first downs / game
21.2
1.2
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

LAC · NE · 55 days
Los Angeles ChargersNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · NE 1−2
Dec 28, 2024at NELAC 40 − 7
Dec 3, 2023at NELAC 6 − 0
Oct 31, 2021at LACNE 27 − 24

LAC · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Jan 4at DEN3 − 19L
Dec 27, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at DAL34 − 17W
Dec 14, 2025at KC16 − 13W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHI22 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025vs LV31 − 14W
Nov 16, 2025at JAX6 − 35L
Nov 9, 2025vs PIT25 − 10W
Nov 2, 2025at TEN27 − 20W
Oct 23, 2025vs MIN37 − 10W

NE · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
Jan 4vs MIA38 − 10W
Dec 28, 2025at NYJ42 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at BAL28 − 24W
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF31 − 35L
Dec 1, 2025vs NYG33 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025at CIN26 − 20W
Nov 13, 2025vs NYJ27 − 14W
Nov 9, 2025at TB28 − 23W
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL24 − 23W
Oct 26, 2025vs CLE32 − 13W