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Texans at Chargers

NFL · Saturday, Dec 27 · 3:30 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final HOU 20 – LAC 16
← NFL / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU1403320
LAC037616
Team box
HOU·LAC
362
total yards
275
244
passing yards
201
118
rushing yards
74
16
first downs
16
3-11
third downs
6-15
2
turnovers
1
30:21
time of possession
29:39
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
C.J. StroudHOU16/2824422
Justin HerbertLAC21/3223611
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Woody MarksHOU19710
Justin HerbertLAC6370
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jayden HigginsHOU2881
Quentin JohnstonLAC5980

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +14
HOU +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 0 · HOU 14lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 50%, LAC 50% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
LAC by 1.9
Expected score
LAC 19.6 – 17.7 HOU
Expected total
37.2
TexansThe matchupChargers
−102Our fair odds+102
17.7Expected points19.6
+0.67Power rating+0.40
23.1Points / game23.3
16.6Allowed / game20.1
324Total yards / game346
5.0Yards / play5.4
217Passing yards / game220
10−5Season record11−4
8−2Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · LAC chance
Our model fair50.5%49.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans−10250%————
LACLos Angeles Chargers+10250%————
SpreadLAC by 1.9
HOUHouston Texans+1.9our margin————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 37.2
Over37.2our total————
Under37.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Chargers by 1.9 expected
Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 25 points: <1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 2%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: <1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 3%Houston Texans by 13 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 6 points: 3%Houston Texans by 5 points: 3%Houston Texans by 4 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 8%Houston Texans by 2 points: 2%Houston Texans by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%
← HOU wins byLAC wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more48%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more32%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

37.2 expected
4 points: <1%5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: 1%14 points: <1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 3%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: <1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 30.569%
Total over 37.547%
Total over 44.527%
Total from 31 to 4441%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 63% completions, 217 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 64% completions, 216 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·LAC
Dec 21, 2025 vs LV
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at DAL
5 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
HOU·LAC
+0.67
rating (0 = average)
+0.40
23.1
points / game
23.3
16.6
points allowed / game
20.1
10−5
season record
11−4
6−2
home record
6−2
4−3
away record
5−2
W7
streak
W4
8−2
last 10
8−2
324
total yards / game
346
5.0
yards / play
5.4
217
passing yards / game
220
107
rushing yards / game
125
19.0
first downs / game
20.1
0.7
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

HOU · LAC · 49 days
Houston TexansLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · LAC 1−2
Jan 11, 2025at HOUHOU 32 − 12post
Oct 2, 2022at HOULAC 34 − 24
Dec 26, 2021at HOUHOU 41 − 29

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Dec 21, 2025vs LV23 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs ARI40 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025at KC20 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025at IND20 − 16W
Nov 20, 2025vs BUF23 − 19W
Nov 16, 2025at TEN16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs JAX36 − 29W
Nov 2, 2025vs DEN15 − 18L
Oct 26, 2025vs SF26 − 15W
Oct 20, 2025at SEA19 − 27L

LAC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Dec 21, 2025at DAL34 − 17W
Dec 14, 2025at KC16 − 13W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHI22 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025vs LV31 − 14W
Nov 16, 2025at JAX6 − 35L
Nov 9, 2025vs PIT25 − 10W
Nov 2, 2025at TEN27 − 20W
Oct 23, 2025vs MIN37 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025vs IND24 − 38L
Oct 12, 2025at MIA29 − 27W