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Raiders at Texans

NFL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 3:25 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final LV 21 – HOU 23
← NFL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LV077721
HOU763723
Team box
LV·HOU
315
total yards
270
170
passing yards
187
145
rushing yards
83
12
first downs
16
6-14
third downs
7-15
1
turnovers
0
28:14
time of possession
31:46
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Geno SmithLV16/2320121
C.J. StroudHOU23/3518710
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Ashton JeantyLV241281
Jawhar JordanHOU15530
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ashton JeantyLV1601
Nico CollinsHOU4590

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +9
LV +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 9 · LV 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LV 10%, HOU 90% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 19.2
Expected score
HOU 27.7 – 8.5 LV
Expected total
36.2
RaidersThe matchupTexans
+901Our fair odds−901
8.5Expected points27.7
−1.35Power rating+0.72
14.0Points / game23.1
25.9Allowed / game16.3
244Total yards / game328
4.3Yards / play5.1
173Passing yards / game219
2−12Season record9−5
1−9Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LV chance · HOU chance
Our model fair10.0%90.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LVLas Vegas Raiders+90110%————
HOUHouston Texans−90190%————
SpreadHOU by 19.2
LVLas Vegas Raiders+19.2our margin————
HOUHouston Texans−19.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 36.2
Over36.2our total————
Under36.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 19.2 expected
Las Vegas Raiders by 50 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 49 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 48 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 47 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 46 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 45 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 44 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 43 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 42 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 1%Houston Texans by 2 points: 1%Houston Texans by 3 points: 4%Houston Texans by 4 points: 1%Houston Texans by 5 points: 1%Houston Texans by 6 points: 3%Houston Texans by 7 points: 3%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: 2%Houston Texans by 14 points: 3%Houston Texans by 15 points: 2%Houston Texans by 16 points: 2%Houston Texans by 17 points: 6%Houston Texans by 18 points: 3%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 3%Houston Texans by 21 points: 4%Houston Texans by 22 points: 3%Houston Texans by 23 points: 3%Houston Texans by 24 points: 6%Houston Texans by 25 points: 3%Houston Texans by 26 points: 3%Houston Texans by 27 points: 2%Houston Texans by 28 points: 3%Houston Texans by 29 points: 1%Houston Texans by 30 points: 1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 4%Houston Texans by 32 points: 1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: 2%Houston Texans by 35 points: 2%Houston Texans by 36 points: 1%Houston Texans by 37 points: 1%Houston Texans by 38 points: 1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: 1%Houston Texans by 41 points: 1%Houston Texans by 42 points: 1%Houston Texans by 43 points: 1%Houston Texans by 44 points: 1%Houston Texans by 45 points: <1%Houston Texans by 46 points: 1%Houston Texans by 47 points: <1%Houston Texans by 48 points: <1%Houston Texans by 49 points: <1%Houston Texans by 50 points: <1%
← LV wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more91%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more82%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more75%
Within 3 points either way10%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

36.2 expected
3 points: <1%4 points: <1%5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: 1%14 points: 1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 1%21 points: 2%22 points: 2%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 3%27 points: 3%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 1%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: <1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 29.569%
Total over 36.548%
Total over 43.527%
Total from 30 to 4342%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 69% completions, 189 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 62% completions, 246 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LV·HOU
Dec 14, 2025 at PHI
last game
Dec 14, 2025 vs ARI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
LV·HOU
−1.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.72
14.0
points / game
23.1
25.9
points allowed / game
16.3
2−12
season record
9−5
1−6
home record
5−2
1−6
away record
4−3
L8
streak
W6
1−9
last 10
8−2
244
total yards / game
328
4.3
yards / play
5.1
173
passing yards / game
219
71
rushing yards / game
108
15.6
first downs / game
19.2
1.3
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

LV · HOU · 46 days
Las Vegas RaidersHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · HOU 0−1
Oct 23, 2022at LVLV 38 − 20

LV · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Dec 14, 2025at PHI0 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN17 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025at LAC14 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs CLE10 − 24L
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL16 − 33L
Nov 6, 2025at DEN7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs JAX29 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025at KC0 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs TEN20 − 10W
Oct 5, 2025at IND6 − 40L

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Dec 14, 2025vs ARI40 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025at KC20 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025at IND20 − 16W
Nov 20, 2025vs BUF23 − 19W
Nov 16, 2025at TEN16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs JAX36 − 29W
Nov 2, 2025vs DEN15 − 18L
Oct 26, 2025vs SF26 − 15W
Oct 20, 2025at SEA19 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025at BAL44 − 10W