bayesRatings

Chargers at Broncos

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final LAC 3 – DEN 19
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC03003
DEN1003619
Team box
LAC·DEN
217
total yards
240
104
passing yards
124
113
rushing yards
116
13
first downs
13
7-20
third downs
5-15
2
turnovers
0
25:59
time of possession
34:01
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Trey LanceLAC20/4413601
Bo NixDEN14/2314100
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Trey LanceLAC9690
Bo NixDEN8490
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Keenan AllenLAC7360
Evan EngramDEN3450

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +16
LAC +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 16 · LAC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 39%, DEN 61% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
DEN by 4.3
Expected score
DEN 21.8 – 17.6 LAC
Expected total
39.4
ChargersThe matchupBroncos
+154Our fair odds−154
17.6Expected points21.8
+0.32Power rating+0.55
22.8Points / game23.9
20.1Allowed / game19.2
341Total yards / game349
5.3Yards / play5.4
219Passing yards / game230
11−5Season record13−3
7−3Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · DEN chance
Our model fair39.4%60.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers+15439%————
DENDenver Broncos−15461%————
SpreadDEN by 4.3
LACLos Angeles Chargers+4.3our margin————
DENDenver Broncos−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.4
Over39.4our total————
Under39.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 4.3 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 7%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 41 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 42 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 43 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 44 points: <1%
← LAC wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more55%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more39%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.4 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.548%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LACTrey Lance · last 3 games: 54% completions, 30 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 65% completions, 279 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·DEN
Dec 27, 2025 vs HOU
last game
Dec 25, 2025 at KC
7 days
days of rest
9 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
LAC·DEN
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.55
22.8
points / game
23.9
20.1
points allowed / game
19.2
11−5
season record
13−3
6−3
home record
7−1
5−2
away record
6−2
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
9−1
341
total yards / game
349
5.3
yards / play
5.4
219
passing yards / game
230
122
rushing yards / game
119
19.9
first downs / game
20.1
1.2
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

LAC · DEN · 53 days
Los Angeles ChargersDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DEN 4−5
Sep 21, 2025at LACLAC 23 − 20
Dec 19, 2024at LACLAC 34 − 27
Oct 13, 2024at DENLAC 23 − 16
Dec 31, 2023at DENDEN 16 − 9
Dec 10, 2023at LACDEN 24 − 7
Jan 8, 2023at DENDEN 31 − 28
Oct 17, 2022at LACLAC 19 − 16
Jan 2, 2022at LACLAC 34 − 13
Nov 28, 2021at DENDEN 28 − 13

LAC · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 27, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at DAL34 − 17W
Dec 14, 2025at KC16 − 13W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHI22 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025vs LV31 − 14W
Nov 16, 2025at JAX6 − 35L
Nov 9, 2025vs PIT25 − 10W
Nov 2, 2025at TEN27 − 20W
Oct 23, 2025vs MIN37 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025vs IND24 − 38L

DEN · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Dec 25, 2025at KC20 − 13W
Dec 21, 2025vs JAX20 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs GB34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025at LV24 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at WSH27 − 26W
Nov 16, 2025vs KC22 − 19W
Nov 6, 2025vs LV10 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at HOU18 − 15W
Oct 26, 2025vs DAL44 − 24W
Oct 19, 2025vs NYG33 − 32W