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Broncos at Chiefs

NFL · Thursday, Dec 25 · 7:15 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Final DEN 20 – KC 13
← NFL / Dec 25, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN337720
KC073313
Team box
DEN·KC
303
total yards
139
175
passing yards
57
128
rushing yards
82
22
first downs
10
11-18
third downs
4-11
1
turnovers
0
39:28
time of possession
20:32
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bo NixDEN26/3818211
Chris OladokunKC13/226610
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
RJ HarveyDEN14430
Kareem HuntKC7380
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Courtland SuttonDEN4400
Travis KelceKC5360

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +7
DEN +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: KC 4 · DEN 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 52%, KC 48% · Updated Dec 25, 2025

Expected margin
KC by 0.9
Expected score
KC 20.1 – 19.2 DEN
Expected total
39.2
BroncosThe matchupChiefs
−108Our fair odds+108
19.2Expected points20.1
+0.51Power rating+0.19
24.1Points / game22.5
19.7Allowed / game19.6
352Total yards / game343
5.5Yards / play5.3
234Passing yards / game233
12−3Season record6−9
9−1Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · KC chance
Our model fair52.0%48.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos−10852%————
KCKansas City Chiefs+10848%————
SpreadKC by 0.9
DENDenver Broncos+0.9our margin————
KCKansas City Chiefs−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.2
Over39.2our total————
Under39.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 0.9 expected
Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 9%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%
← DEN wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more45%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more30%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.2 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.547%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 69% completions, 289 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted
KCChris Oladokun · last 1 game: 69% completions, 111 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·KC
Dec 21, 2025 vs JAX
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at TEN
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
DEN·KC
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
24.1
points / game
22.5
19.7
points allowed / game
19.6
12−3
season record
6−9
7−1
home record
5−3
5−2
away record
1−6
L1
streak
L4
9−1
last 10
4−6
352
total yards / game
343
5.5
yards / play
5.3
234
passing yards / game
233
118
rushing yards / game
110
19.9
first downs / game
21.1
1.1
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

DEN · KC · 48 days
Denver BroncosKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · KC 6−3
Nov 16, 2025at DENDEN 22 − 19
Jan 5, 2025at DENDEN 38 − 0
Nov 10, 2024at KCKC 16 − 14
Oct 29, 2023at DENDEN 24 − 9
Oct 12, 2023at KCKC 19 − 8
Jan 1, 2023at KCKC 27 − 24
Dec 11, 2022at DENKC 34 − 28
Jan 8, 2022at DENKC 28 − 24
Dec 5, 2021at KCKC 22 − 9

DEN · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Dec 21, 2025vs JAX20 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs GB34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025at LV24 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at WSH27 − 26W
Nov 16, 2025vs KC22 − 19W
Nov 6, 2025vs LV10 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at HOU18 − 15W
Oct 26, 2025vs DAL44 − 24W
Oct 19, 2025vs NYG33 − 32W
Oct 12, 2025at NYJ13 − 11W

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Dec 21, 2025at TEN9 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC13 − 16L
Dec 7, 2025vs HOU10 − 20L
Nov 27, 2025at DAL28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs IND23 − 20W
Nov 16, 2025at DEN19 − 22L
Nov 2, 2025at BUF21 − 28L
Oct 27, 2025vs WSH28 − 7W
Oct 19, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Oct 12, 2025vs DET30 − 17W