bayesRatings

Chiefs at Titans

NFL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Nissan Stadium · Final KC 9 – TEN 26
← NFL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
KC06309
TEN0971026
Team box
KC·TEN
133
total yards
376
82
passing yards
212
51
rushing yards
164
9
first downs
22
1-9
third downs
9-17
0
turnovers
0
21:59
time of possession
38:01
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Chris OladokunKC11/1611100
Cam WardTEN21/2822820
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Isiah PachecoKC8340
Tony PollardTEN211020
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Isiah PachecoKC6410
Elic AyomanorTEN3580

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEN +17
KC +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TEN 17 · KC 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 78%, TEN 22% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
KC by 10.1
Expected score
KC 25.9 – 15.8 TEN
Expected total
41.7
ChiefsThe matchupTitans
−357Our fair odds+357
25.9Expected points15.8
+0.37Power rating−1.25
23.4Points / game16.1
19.1Allowed / game28.1
358Total yards / game250
5.5Yards / play4.3
244Passing yards / game162
6−8Season record2−12
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · TEN chance
Our model fair78.1%21.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs−35778%————
TENTennessee Titans+35722%————
SpreadKC by 10.1
KCKansas City Chiefs−10.1our margin————
TENTennessee Titans+10.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.7
Over41.7our total————
Under41.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 10.1 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 1%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 4%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%
← KC wins byTEN wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more72%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more58%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more51%
Within 3 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.7 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.569%
Total over 41.548%
Total over 48.529%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
KCChris Oladokun · no recent games on recordstarted
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 59% completions, 143 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·TEN
Dec 14, 2025 vs LAC
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at SF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
KC·TEN
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
−1.25
23.4
points / game
16.1
19.1
points allowed / game
28.1
6−8
season record
2−12
5−3
home record
0−7
1−5
away record
2−5
L3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
2−8
358
total yards / game
250
5.5
yards / play
4.3
244
passing yards / game
162
114
rushing yards / game
89
22.0
first downs / game
15.1
0.9
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

KC · TEN · 46 days
Kansas City ChiefsTennessee Titans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · TEN 1−1
Nov 6, 2022at KCKC 20 − 17
Oct 24, 2021at TENTEN 27 − 3

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC13 − 16L
Dec 7, 2025vs HOU10 − 20L
Nov 27, 2025at DAL28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs IND23 − 20W
Nov 16, 2025at DEN19 − 22L
Nov 2, 2025at BUF21 − 28L
Oct 27, 2025vs WSH28 − 7W
Oct 19, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Oct 12, 2025vs DET30 − 17W
Oct 6, 2025at JAX28 − 31L

TEN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Dec 14, 2025at SF24 − 37L
Dec 7, 2025at CLE31 − 29W
Nov 30, 2025vs JAX3 − 25L
Nov 23, 2025vs SEA24 − 30L
Nov 16, 2025vs HOU13 − 16L
Nov 2, 2025vs LAC20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at IND14 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025vs NE13 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025at LV10 − 20L
Oct 5, 2025at ARI22 − 21W