bayesRatings

Bills at Broncos

NFL · Saturday, Jan 17 · 3:30 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final BUF 30 – DEN 33
← NFL / Jan 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
BUF73713030
DEN31737333
Team box
BUF·DEN
449
total yards
349
266
passing yards
279
183
rushing yards
70
28
first downs
22
10-15
third downs
8-16
5
turnovers
1
40:58
time of possession
29:18
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh AllenBUF25/3928332
Bo NixDEN26/4627931
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF241170
Bo NixDEN12290
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Dalton KincaidBUF6831
Marvin Mims Jr.DEN8931

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +13
BUF +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: DEN 13 · BUF 4lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 50%, DEN 50% · Updated Jan 17

Expected margin
BUF by 0.9
Expected score
BUF 23.1 – 22.2 DEN
Expected total
45.3
BillsThe matchupBroncos
−102Our fair odds+102
23.1Expected points22.2
+0.85Power rating+0.58
28.3Points / game23.6
21.5Allowed / game18.3
376Total yards / game343
5.9Yards / play5.3
217Passing yards / game224
12−5 · 1−0 postSeason record14−3
7−3Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · DEN chance
Our model fair50.5%49.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills−10250%————
DENDenver Broncos+10250%————
SpreadBUF by 0.9
BUFBuffalo Bills−0.9our margin————
DENDenver Broncos+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.3
Over45.3our total————
Under45.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 0.9 expected
Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 9%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 7%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%
← BUF wins byDEN wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more49%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more30%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.3 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.547%
Total over 52.529%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 71% completions, 222 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 63% completions, 225 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·DEN
Jan 11 at JAX
last game
Jan 4 vs LAC
5 days
days of rest
12 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
BUF·DEN
+0.85
rating (0 = average)
+0.58
28.3
points / game
23.6
21.5
points allowed / game
18.3
12−5 · 1−0 post
season record
14−3
7−2
home record
8−1
5−3
away record
6−2
W2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
9−1
376
total yards / game
343
5.9
yards / play
5.3
217
passing yards / game
224
160
rushing yards / game
119
22.0
first downs / game
19.6
1.1
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

BUF · DEN · 57 days
Buffalo BillsDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · DEN 1−1
Jan 12, 2025at BUFBUF 31 − 7post
Nov 13, 2023at BUFDEN 24 − 22

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 11at JAX27 − 24W
Jan 4vs NYJ35 − 8W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI12 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at CLE23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NE35 − 31W
Dec 7, 2025vs CIN39 − 34W
Nov 30, 2025at PIT26 − 7W
Nov 20, 2025at HOU19 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs TB44 − 32W
Nov 9, 2025at MIA13 − 30L

DEN · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
Jan 4vs LAC19 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025at KC20 − 13W
Dec 21, 2025vs JAX20 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs GB34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025at LV24 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at WSH27 − 26W
Nov 16, 2025vs KC22 − 19W
Nov 6, 2025vs LV10 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at HOU18 − 15W
Oct 26, 2025vs DAL44 − 24W