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Jets at Bills

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Highmark Stadium (Old) · Final NYJ 8 – BUF 35
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYJ00088
BUF7148635
Team box
NYJ·BUF
122
total yards
470
53
passing yards
259
69
rushing yards
211
9
first downs
30
5-13
third downs
6-13
0
turnovers
0
21:40
time of possession
38:20
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brady CookNYJ11/226010
Mitchell TrubiskyBUF22/2925940
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Khalil HerbertNYJ12420
Ray DavisBUF211510
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Isaiah WilliamsNYJ5240
Keon ColemanBUF2490

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +35
NYJ +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BUF 35 · NYJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYJ 11%, BUF 89% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
BUF by 17.2
Expected score
BUF 34.6 – 17.4 NYJ
Expected total
52.0
JetsThe matchupBills
+776Our fair odds−776
17.4Expected points34.6
−1.21Power rating+0.75
18.2Points / game27.9
29.2Allowed / game22.3
272Total yards / game370
4.5Yards / play5.9
146Passing yards / game214
3−13Season record11−5
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · BUF chance
Our model fair11.4%88.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+77611%————
BUFBuffalo Bills−77689%————
SpreadBUF by 17.2
NYJNew York Jets+17.2our margin————
BUFBuffalo Bills−17.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 52.0
Over52.0our total————
Under52.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 17.2 expected
New York Jets by 50 points: <1%New York Jets by 49 points: <1%New York Jets by 48 points: <1%New York Jets by 47 points: <1%New York Jets by 46 points: <1%New York Jets by 45 points: <1%New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 18 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: <1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: <1%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: <1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: <1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 8 points: <1%New York Jets by 7 points: 1%New York Jets by 6 points: 1%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 4 points: 1%New York Jets by 3 points: 3%New York Jets by 2 points: 1%New York Jets by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 1%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 42 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 43 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 44 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 45 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 46 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 47 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 48 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 49 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 50 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more87%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more75%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more68%
Within 3 points either way13%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

52.0 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 45.564%
Total over 52.546%
Total over 59.530%
Total from 46 to 5934%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYJBrady Cook · last 3 games: 62% completions, 172 yds/game, 1 TD, 5 INTstarted
BUFMitchell Trubisky · last 3 games: 67% completions, 52 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·BUF
Dec 28, 2025 vs NE
last game
Dec 28, 2025 vs PHI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
NYJ·BUF
−1.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.75
18.2
points / game
27.9
29.2
points allowed / game
22.3
3−13
season record
11−5
2−7
home record
6−2
1−6
away record
5−3
L4
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
7−3
272
total yards / game
370
4.5
yards / play
5.9
146
passing yards / game
214
127
rushing yards / game
156
16.4
first downs / game
21.5
1.4
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

NYJ · BUF · 53 days
New York JetsBuffalo Bills
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · BUF 7−2
Sep 14, 2025at NYJBUF 30 − 10
Dec 29, 2024at BUFBUF 40 − 14
Oct 14, 2024at NYJBUF 23 − 20
Nov 19, 2023at BUFBUF 32 − 6
Sep 11, 2023at NYJNYJ 22 − 16
Dec 11, 2022at BUFBUF 20 − 12
Nov 6, 2022at NYJNYJ 20 − 17
Jan 9, 2022at BUFBUF 27 − 10
Nov 14, 2021at NYJBUF 45 − 17

NYJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Dec 28, 2025vs NE10 − 42L
Dec 21, 2025at NO6 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at JAX20 − 48L
Dec 7, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL27 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025at BAL10 − 23L
Nov 13, 2025at NE14 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025vs CLE27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025at CIN39 − 38W
Oct 19, 2025vs CAR6 − 13L

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI12 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at CLE23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NE35 − 31W
Dec 7, 2025vs CIN39 − 34W
Nov 30, 2025at PIT26 − 7W
Nov 20, 2025at HOU19 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs TB44 − 32W
Nov 9, 2025at MIA13 − 30L
Nov 2, 2025vs KC28 − 21W
Oct 26, 2025at CAR40 − 9W