bayesRatings

Bills at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Jan 11 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium · Final BUF 27 – JAX 24
← NFL / Jan 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BUF3731427
JAX0731424
Team box
BUF·JAX
340
total yards
359
261
passing yards
205
79
rushing yards
154
20
first downs
20
7-14
third downs
5-9
1
turnovers
2
33:49
time of possession
26:11
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh AllenBUF28/3527310
Trevor LawrenceJAX18/3020732
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF15460
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX10670
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Khalil ShakirBUF12820
Parker WashingtonJAX71071

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +6
BUF +6
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 4 · BUF 6lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 48%, JAX 52% · Updated Jan 11

Expected margin
BUF by 0.8
Expected score
BUF 25.6 – 24.9 JAX
Expected total
50.5
BillsThe matchupJaguars
+107Our fair odds−107
25.6Expected points24.9
+0.77Power rating+0.59
28.3Points / game27.9
21.5Allowed / game19.8
376Total yards / game337
5.9Yards / play5.3
217Passing yards / game222
12−5Season record13−4
7−3Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · JAX chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills+10748%————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−10752%————
SpreadBUF by 0.8
BUFBuffalo Bills−0.8our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.5
Over50.5our total————
Under50.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 0.8 expected
Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 9%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%
← BUF wins byJAX wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more49%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more30%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.5 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.566%
Total over 50.547%
Total over 57.531%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 66% completions, 195 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 66% completions, 266 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·JAX
Jan 4 vs NYJ
last game
Jan 4 vs TEN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
BUF·JAX
+0.77
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
28.3
points / game
27.9
21.5
points allowed / game
19.8
12−5
season record
13−4
7−2
home record
7−2
5−3
away record
6−2
W1
streak
W8
7−3
last 10
9−1
376
total yards / game
337
5.9
yards / play
5.3
217
passing yards / game
222
160
rushing yards / game
115
22.0
first downs / game
20.9
1.1
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

BUF · JAX · 55 days
Buffalo BillsJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · JAX 2−1
Sep 23, 2024at BUFBUF 47 − 10
Oct 8, 2023at BUFJAX 25 − 20
Nov 7, 2021at JAXJAX 9 − 6

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jan 4vs NYJ35 − 8W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI12 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at CLE23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NE35 − 31W
Dec 7, 2025vs CIN39 − 34W
Nov 30, 2025at PIT26 − 7W
Nov 20, 2025at HOU19 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs TB44 − 32W
Nov 9, 2025at MIA13 − 30L
Nov 2, 2025vs KC28 − 21W

JAX · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Jan 4vs TEN41 − 7W
Dec 28, 2025at IND23 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025at DEN34 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025vs NYJ48 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025vs IND36 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025at TEN25 − 3W
Nov 23, 2025at ARI27 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025vs LAC35 − 6W
Nov 9, 2025at HOU29 − 36L
Nov 2, 2025at LV30 − 29W