bayesRatings

Titans at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium · Final TEN 7 – JAX 41
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TEN70007
JAX7243741
Team box
TEN·JAX
194
total yards
319
117
passing yards
255
77
rushing yards
64
10
first downs
24
4-14
third downs
4-9
1
turnovers
0
26:57
time of possession
33:03
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brandon AllenTEN17/307201
Trevor LawrenceJAX22/3025530
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tony PollardTEN14480
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX14320
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Elic AyomanorTEN3500
Parker WashingtonJAX5871

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +34
TEN +34
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 34 · TEN 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEN 15%, JAX 85% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
JAX by 15.1
Expected score
JAX 30.9 – 15.8 TEN
Expected total
46.8
TitansThe matchupJaguars
+547Our fair odds−547
15.8Expected points30.9
−1.07Power rating+0.51
17.3Points / game27.1
27.3Allowed / game20.6
264Total yards / game338
4.4Yards / play5.3
169Passing yards / game220
3−13Season record12−4
2−8Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEN chance · JAX chance
Our model fair15.4%84.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TENTennessee Titans+54715%————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−54785%————
SpreadJAX by 15.1
TENTennessee Titans+15.1our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−15.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.8
Over46.8our total————
Under46.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 15.1 expected
Tennessee Titans by 49 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 48 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 47 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 46 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 45 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 44 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 43 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 42 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 41 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 4%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 5%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 5%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 43 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 44 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 45 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 46 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 47 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 48 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 49 points: <1%
← TEN wins byJAX wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more82%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more69%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more61%
Within 3 points either way15%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.8 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TENBrandon Allen · last 3 games: 61% completions, 74 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 63% completions, 291 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEN·JAX
Dec 28, 2025 vs NO
last game
Dec 28, 2025 at IND
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
TEN·JAX
−1.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.51
17.3
points / game
27.1
27.3
points allowed / game
20.6
3−13
season record
12−4
1−8
home record
6−2
2−5
away record
6−2
L1
streak
W7
2−8
last 10
8−2
264
total yards / game
338
4.4
yards / play
5.3
169
passing yards / game
220
94
rushing yards / game
118
15.7
first downs / game
20.8
1.1
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

TEN · JAX · 53 days
Tennessee TitansJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · JAX 6−3
Nov 30, 2025at TENJAX 25 − 3
Dec 29, 2024at JAXJAX 20 − 13
Dec 8, 2024at TENJAX 10 − 6
Jan 7, 2024at TENTEN 28 − 20
Nov 19, 2023at JAXJAX 34 − 14
Jan 7, 2023at JAXJAX 20 − 16
Dec 11, 2022at TENJAX 36 − 22
Dec 12, 2021at TENTEN 20 − 0
Oct 10, 2021at JAXTEN 37 − 19

TEN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Dec 28, 2025vs NO26 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025vs KC26 − 9W
Dec 14, 2025at SF24 − 37L
Dec 7, 2025at CLE31 − 29W
Nov 30, 2025vs JAX3 − 25L
Nov 23, 2025vs SEA24 − 30L
Nov 16, 2025vs HOU13 − 16L
Nov 2, 2025vs LAC20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at IND14 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025vs NE13 − 31L

JAX · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Dec 28, 2025at IND23 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025at DEN34 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025vs NYJ48 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025vs IND36 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025at TEN25 − 3W
Nov 23, 2025at ARI27 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025vs LAC35 − 6W
Nov 9, 2025at HOU29 − 36L
Nov 2, 2025at LV30 − 29W
Oct 19, 2025vs LAR7 − 35L