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Jaguars at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Dec 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Final JAX 23 – IND 17
← NFL / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
JAX0710623
IND377017
Team box
JAX·IND
370
total yards
204
249
passing yards
135
121
rushing yards
69
21
first downs
16
7-14
third downs
4-11
2
turnovers
2
32:19
time of possession
27:41
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Trevor LawrenceJAX23/3726301
Philip RiversIND17/3014711
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX17760
Jonathan TaylorIND21701
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Parker WashingtonJAX81150
Tyler WarrenIND5430

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +10
JAX +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 10 · JAX 6lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was JAX 52%, IND 48% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
JAX by 1.3
Expected score
JAX 26.4 – 25.2 IND
Expected total
51.6
JaguarsThe matchupColts
−108Our fair odds+108
26.4Expected points25.2
+0.48Power rating+0.16
27.3Points / game27.9
20.8Allowed / game23.4
336Total yards / game355
5.2Yards / play5.9
218Passing yards / game231
11−4Season record8−7
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
JAX chance · IND chance
Our model fair51.8%48.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−10852%————
INDIndianapolis Colts+10848%————
SpreadJAX by 1.3
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−1.3our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 51.6
Over51.6our total————
Under51.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 1.3 expected
Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 5%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 9%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 7%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%
← JAX wins byIND wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more50%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more31%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

51.6 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 44.566%
Total over 51.547%
Total over 58.531%
Total from 45 to 5835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 61% completions, 284 yds/game, 10 TD, 0 INTstarted
INDPhilip Rivers · last 2 games: 66% completions, 198 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
JAX·IND
Dec 21, 2025 at DEN
last game
Dec 22, 2025 vs SF
6 days
days of rest
5 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
JAX·IND
+0.48
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
27.3
points / game
27.9
20.8
points allowed / game
23.4
11−4
season record
8−7
6−2
home record
6−2
5−2
away record
2−5
W6
streak
L5
7−3
last 10
4−6
336
total yards / game
355
5.2
yards / play
5.9
218
passing yards / game
231
118
rushing yards / game
124
20.7
first downs / game
21.1
1.1
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

JAX · IND · 50 days
Jacksonville JaguarsIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · IND 3−6
Dec 7, 2025at JAXJAX 36 − 19
Jan 5, 2025at INDIND 26 − 23
Oct 6, 2024at JAXJAX 37 − 34
Oct 15, 2023at JAXJAX 37 − 20
Sep 10, 2023at INDJAX 31 − 21
Oct 16, 2022at INDIND 34 − 27
Sep 18, 2022at JAXJAX 24 − 0
Jan 9, 2022at JAXJAX 26 − 11
Nov 14, 2021at INDIND 23 − 17

JAX · Last 10

7−3 · streak W6
Dec 21, 2025at DEN34 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025vs NYJ48 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025vs IND36 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025at TEN25 − 3W
Nov 23, 2025at ARI27 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025vs LAC35 − 6W
Nov 9, 2025at HOU29 − 36L
Nov 2, 2025at LV30 − 29W
Oct 19, 2025vs LAR7 − 35L
Oct 12, 2025vs SEA12 − 20L

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Dec 22, 2025vs SF27 − 48L
Dec 14, 2025at SEA16 − 18L
Dec 7, 2025at JAX19 − 36L
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025at KC20 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025vs ATL31 − 25W
Nov 2, 2025at PIT20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025vs TEN38 − 14W
Oct 19, 2025at LAC38 − 24W
Oct 12, 2025vs ARI31 − 27W