bayesRatings

Saints at Titans

NFL · Sunday, Dec 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Nissan Stadium · Final NO 34 – TEN 26
← NFL / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO010101434
TEN6143326
Team box
NO·TEN
423
total yards
336
320
passing yards
228
103
rushing yards
108
16
first downs
18
5-11
third downs
5-15
1
turnovers
1
28:19
time of possession
31:41
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyler ShoughNO22/2733320
Cam WardTEN21/4025120
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Audric EstimeNO14941
Tony PollardTEN18850
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Chris OlaveNO81191
Chig OkonkwoTEN3551

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEN +13
NO +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TEN 13 · NO 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 54%, TEN 46% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
TEN by 0.2
Expected score
TEN 19.1 – 18.8 NO
Expected total
37.9
SaintsThe matchupTitans
−117Our fair odds+117
18.8Expected points19.1
−0.59Power rating−1.00
17.0Points / game16.7
22.5Allowed / game26.9
305Total yards / game259
4.8Yards / play4.4
212Passing yards / game165
5−10Season record3−12
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · TEN chance
Our model fair54.0%46.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Saints−11754%————
TENTennessee Titans+11746%————
SpreadTEN by 0.2
NONew Orleans Saints+0.2our margin————
TENTennessee Titans−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 37.9
Over37.9our total————
Under37.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tennessee Titans by 0.2 expected
New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 5%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 9%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 7%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 4%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 4%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%
← NO wins byTEN wins by →
Tennessee Titans wins by 3 or more43%
Tennessee Titans wins by 7 or more28%
Tennessee Titans wins by 10 or more20%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

37.9 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 30.570%
Total over 37.549%
Total over 44.529%
Total from 31 to 4441%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 68% completions, 241 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 62% completions, 172 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·TEN
Dec 21, 2025 vs NYJ
last game
Dec 21, 2025 vs KC
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
NO·TEN
−0.59
rating (0 = average)
−1.00
17.0
points / game
16.7
22.5
points allowed / game
26.9
5−10
season record
3−12
3−5
home record
1−7
2−5
away record
2−5
W3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
305
total yards / game
259
4.8
yards / play
4.4
212
passing yards / game
165
93
rushing yards / game
94
19.1
first downs / game
15.5
1.4
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

NO · TEN · 50 days
New Orleans SaintsTennessee Titans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · TEN 1−1
Sep 10, 2023at NONO 16 − 15
Nov 14, 2021at TENTEN 23 − 21

NO · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 6W
Dec 14, 2025vs CAR20 − 17W
Dec 7, 2025at TB24 − 20W
Nov 30, 2025at MIA17 − 21L
Nov 23, 2025vs ATL10 − 24L
Nov 9, 2025at CAR17 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at LAR10 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025vs TB3 − 23L
Oct 19, 2025at CHI14 − 26L
Oct 12, 2025vs NE19 − 25L

TEN · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Dec 21, 2025vs KC26 − 9W
Dec 14, 2025at SF24 − 37L
Dec 7, 2025at CLE31 − 29W
Nov 30, 2025vs JAX3 − 25L
Nov 23, 2025vs SEA24 − 30L
Nov 16, 2025vs HOU13 − 16L
Nov 2, 2025vs LAC20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at IND14 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025vs NE13 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025at LV10 − 20L