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Texans at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Jan 18 · 2:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final HOU 16 – NE 28
← NFL / Jan 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU376016
NE7140728
Team box
HOU·NE
241
total yards
248
193
passing yards
143
48
rushing yards
105
16
first downs
13
7-17
third downs
3-14
5
turnovers
3
27:51
time of possession
32:09
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
C.J. StroudHOU20/4721214
Drake MayeNE16/2717931
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Woody MarksHOU14170
Rhamondre StevensonNE16700
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jayden HigginsHOU6590
Kayshon BoutteNE3751

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +12
HOU +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 12 · HOU 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 49%, NE 51% · Updated Jan 18

Expected margin
NE by 2.1
Expected score
NE 20.9 – 18.8 HOU
Expected total
39.7
TexansThe matchupPatriots
+105Our fair odds−105
18.8Expected points20.9
+0.82Power rating+0.63
23.8Points / game28.8
17.4Allowed / game18.8
327Total yards / game379
5.1Yards / play6.2
218Passing yards / game250
12−5 · 1−0 postSeason record14−3 · 1−0 post
10−0Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · NE chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans+10549%————
NENew England Patriots−10551%————
SpreadNE by 2.1
HOUHouston Texans+2.1our margin————
NENew England Patriots−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.7
Over39.7our total————
Under39.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 2.1 expected
Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 25 points: <1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 2%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: <1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 3%Houston Texans by 13 points: <1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 6 points: 3%Houston Texans by 5 points: 3%Houston Texans by 4 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 8%Houston Texans by 2 points: 2%Houston Texans by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: 2%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 2%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: <1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%
← HOU wins byNE wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more49%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more33%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.7 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.570%
Total over 39.549%
Total over 46.529%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 61% completions, 221 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 74% completions, 238 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·NE
Jan 12 at PIT
last game
Jan 11 vs LAC
5 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
HOU·NE
+0.82
rating (0 = average)
+0.63
23.8
points / game
28.8
17.4
points allowed / game
18.8
12−5 · 1−0 post
season record
14−3 · 1−0 post
7−2
home record
6−3
5−3
away record
8−0
W10
streak
W4
10−0
last 10
9−1
327
total yards / game
379
5.1
yards / play
6.2
218
passing yards / game
250
109
rushing yards / game
129
19.0
first downs / game
21.2
0.7
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

HOU · NE · 58 days
Houston TexansNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · NE 1−1
Oct 13, 2024at NEHOU 41 − 21
Oct 10, 2021at HOUNE 25 − 22

HOU · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Jan 12at PIT30 − 6W
Jan 4vs IND38 − 30W
Dec 27, 2025at LAC20 − 16W
Dec 21, 2025vs LV23 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs ARI40 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025at KC20 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025at IND20 − 16W
Nov 20, 2025vs BUF23 − 19W
Nov 16, 2025at TEN16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs JAX36 − 29W

NE · Last 10

9−1 · streak W4
Jan 11vs LAC16 − 3W
Jan 4vs MIA38 − 10W
Dec 28, 2025at NYJ42 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at BAL28 − 24W
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF31 − 35L
Dec 1, 2025vs NYG33 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025at CIN26 − 20W
Nov 13, 2025vs NYJ27 − 14W
Nov 9, 2025at TB28 − 23W
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL24 − 23W