bayesRatings

Texans at Steelers

NFL · Monday, Jan 12 · 7:15 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · Final HOU 30 – PIT 6
← NFL / Jan 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU0702330
PIT33006
Team box
HOU·PIT
408
total yards
175
244
passing yards
112
164
rushing yards
63
21
first downs
13
10-15
third downs
2-14
3
turnovers
2
32:22
time of possession
27:38
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
C.J. StroudHOU21/3225011
Aaron RodgersPIT17/3314601
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Woody MarksHOU191121
Jaylen WarrenPIT12430
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Christian KirkHOU81441
DK MetcalfPIT2420

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +24
HOU +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 3 · HOU 24lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 57%, PIT 43% · Updated Jan 12

Expected margin
HOU by 1.5
Expected score
HOU 21.2 – 19.7 PIT
Expected total
40.9
TexansThe matchupSteelers
−131Our fair odds+131
21.2Expected points19.7
+0.69Power rating+0.15
23.8Points / game23.4
17.4Allowed / game22.8
327Total yards / game306
5.1Yards / play5.2
218Passing yards / game202
12−5Season record10−7
9−1Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · PIT chance
Our model fair56.7%43.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans−13157%————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+13143%————
SpreadHOU by 1.5
HOUHouston Texans−1.5our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.9
Over40.9our total————
Under40.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 1.5 expected
Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 2%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 3%Houston Texans by 13 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 7 points: 5%Houston Texans by 6 points: 3%Houston Texans by 5 points: 3%Houston Texans by 4 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 9%Houston Texans by 2 points: 2%Houston Texans by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%
← HOU wins byPIT wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more51%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more32%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.9 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.570%
Total over 40.549%
Total over 47.530%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 62% completions, 200 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 62% completions, 243 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·PIT
Jan 4 vs IND
last game
Jan 4 vs BAL
7 days
days of rest
7 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
HOU·PIT
+0.69
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
23.8
points / game
23.4
17.4
points allowed / game
22.8
12−5
season record
10−7
7−2
home record
6−3
5−3
away record
4−4
W9
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
6−4
327
total yards / game
306
5.1
yards / play
5.2
218
passing yards / game
202
109
rushing yards / game
103
19.0
first downs / game
17.7
0.7
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

HOU · PIT · 56 days
Houston TexansPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · PIT 0−1
Oct 1, 2023at HOUHOU 30 − 6

HOU · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Jan 4vs IND38 − 30W
Dec 27, 2025at LAC20 − 16W
Dec 21, 2025vs LV23 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs ARI40 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025at KC20 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025at IND20 − 16W
Nov 20, 2025vs BUF23 − 19W
Nov 16, 2025at TEN16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs JAX36 − 29W
Nov 2, 2025vs DEN15 − 18L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 4vs BAL26 − 24W
Dec 28, 2025at CLE6 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at DET29 − 24W
Dec 15, 2025vs MIA28 − 15W
Dec 7, 2025at BAL27 − 22W
Nov 30, 2025vs BUF7 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at CHI28 − 31L
Nov 16, 2025vs CIN34 − 12W
Nov 9, 2025at LAC10 − 25L
Nov 2, 2025vs IND27 − 20W