bayesRatings

Steelers at Browns

NFL · Sunday, Dec 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Huntington Bank Field · Final PIT 6 – CLE 13
← NFL / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PIT06006
CLE1000313
Team box
PIT·CLE
291
total yards
262
160
passing yards
184
131
rushing yards
78
15
first downs
11
3-15
third downs
4-11
0
turnovers
2
30:39
time of possession
29:21
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Aaron RodgersPIT21/3916800
Shedeur SandersCLE17/2318612
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaylen WarrenPIT12640
Dylan SampsonCLE11270
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Pat FreiermuthPIT3630
Jerry JeudyCLE5540

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +10
PIT +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 10 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 74%, CLE 26% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
PIT by 5.9
Expected score
PIT 22.9 – 17.1 CLE
Expected total
40.0
SteelersThe matchupBrowns
−289Our fair odds+289
22.9Expected points17.1
+0.22Power rating−1.14
24.3Points / game16.4
23.3Allowed / game23.7
301Total yards / game266
5.3Yards / play4.3
199Passing yards / game169
9−6Season record3−12
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CLE chance
Our model fair74.3%25.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers−28974%————
CLECleveland Browns+28926%————
SpreadPIT by 5.9
PITPittsburgh Steelers−5.9our margin————
CLECleveland Browns+5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.0
Over40.0our total————
Under40.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Steelers by 5.9 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 5%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 9%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 6%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%
← PIT wins byCLE wins by →
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 3 or more63%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 7 or more45%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 10 or more36%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.0 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.568%
Total over 40.547%
Total over 47.527%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 72% completions, 258 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
CLEShedeur Sanders · last 3 games: 58% completions, 233 yds/game, 4 TD, 6 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CLE
Dec 21, 2025 at DET
last game
Dec 21, 2025 vs BUF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
PIT·CLE
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−1.14
24.3
points / game
16.4
23.3
points allowed / game
23.7
9−6
season record
3−12
5−3
home record
2−6
4−3
away record
1−6
W3
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
2−8
301
total yards / game
266
5.3
yards / play
4.3
199
passing yards / game
169
102
rushing yards / game
97
17.5
first downs / game
16.4
1.0
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

PIT · CLE · 50 days
Pittsburgh SteelersCleveland Browns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CLE 3−6
Oct 12, 2025at PITPIT 23 − 9
Dec 8, 2024at PITPIT 27 − 14
Nov 21, 2024at CLECLE 24 − 19
Nov 19, 2023at CLECLE 13 − 10
Sep 18, 2023at PITPIT 26 − 22
Jan 8, 2023at PITPIT 28 − 14
Sep 22, 2022at CLECLE 29 − 17
Jan 3, 2022at PITPIT 26 − 14
Oct 31, 2021at CLEPIT 15 − 10

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Dec 21, 2025at DET29 − 24W
Dec 15, 2025vs MIA28 − 15W
Dec 7, 2025at BAL27 − 22W
Nov 30, 2025vs BUF7 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at CHI28 − 31L
Nov 16, 2025vs CIN34 − 12W
Nov 9, 2025at LAC10 − 25L
Nov 2, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025vs GB25 − 35L
Oct 16, 2025at CIN31 − 33L

CLE · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF20 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at CHI3 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs TEN29 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs SF8 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at LV24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs BAL16 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025at NYJ20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at NE13 − 32L
Oct 19, 2025vs MIA31 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025at PIT9 − 23L