bayesRatings

Ravens at Steelers

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 7:20 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · Final BAL 24 – PIT 26
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BAL7301424
PIT03101326
Team box
BAL·PIT
359
total yards
390
222
passing yards
290
137
rushing yards
100
12
first downs
24
4-12
third downs
9-16
1
turnovers
0
25:49
time of possession
34:11
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Lamar JacksonBAL11/1823831
Aaron RodgersPIT31/4729410
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Derrick HenryBAL201260
Jaylen WarrenPIT14660
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Zay FlowersBAL41382
Kenny GainwellPIT8640

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +10
BAL +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 3 · BAL 10lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 51%, PIT 49% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
BAL by 1.7
Expected score
BAL 24.0 – 22.2 PIT
Expected total
46.2
RavensThe matchupSteelers
−105Our fair odds+105
24.0Expected points22.2
+0.39Power rating+0.12
25.0Points / game23.2
23.2Allowed / game22.7
330Total yards / game300
5.8Yards / play5.2
173Passing yards / game197
8−8Season record9−7
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Ravens−10551%————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+10549%————
SpreadBAL by 1.7
BALBaltimore Ravens−1.7our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.2
Over46.2our total————
Under46.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 1.7 expected
Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 9%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%
← BAL wins byPIT wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more51%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more32%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.2 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.567%
Total over 46.547%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 60% completions, 157 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 66% completions, 219 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·PIT
Dec 27, 2025 at GB
last game
Dec 28, 2025 at CLE
7 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
BAL·PIT
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
25.0
points / game
23.2
23.2
points allowed / game
22.7
8−8
season record
9−7
3−6
home record
5−3
5−2
away record
4−4
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
330
total yards / game
300
5.8
yards / play
5.2
173
passing yards / game
197
158
rushing yards / game
104
18.9
first downs / game
17.3
1.4
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

BAL · PIT · 53 days
Baltimore RavensPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 7−3
Dec 7, 2025at BALPIT 27 − 22
Jan 11, 2025at BALBAL 28 − 14post
Dec 21, 2024at BALBAL 34 − 17
Nov 17, 2024at PITPIT 18 − 16
Jan 6, 2024at BALPIT 17 − 10
Oct 8, 2023at PITPIT 17 − 10
Jan 1, 2023at BALPIT 16 − 13
Dec 11, 2022at PITBAL 16 − 14
Jan 9, 2022at BALPIT 16 − 13
Dec 5, 2021at PITPIT 20 − 19

BAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Dec 27, 2025at GB41 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025vs NE24 − 28L
Dec 14, 2025at CIN24 − 0W
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT22 − 27L
Nov 27, 2025vs CIN14 − 32L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYJ23 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025at CLE23 − 16W
Nov 9, 2025at MIN27 − 19W
Oct 30, 2025at MIA28 − 6W
Oct 26, 2025vs CHI30 − 16W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 28, 2025at CLE6 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at DET29 − 24W
Dec 15, 2025vs MIA28 − 15W
Dec 7, 2025at BAL27 − 22W
Nov 30, 2025vs BUF7 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at CHI28 − 31L
Nov 16, 2025vs CIN34 − 12W
Nov 9, 2025at LAC10 − 25L
Nov 2, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025vs GB25 − 35L