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Colts at Texans

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final IND 30 – HOU 38
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND10710330
HOU61731238
Team box
IND·HOU
354
total yards
339
278
passing yards
205
76
rushing yards
134
19
first downs
22
8-15
third downs
4-13
3
turnovers
0
31:45
time of possession
28:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Riley LeonardIND21/3427021
C.J. StroudHOU14/2316910
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
DJ GiddensIND8300
British BrooksHOU13630
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Alec PierceIND41322
Xavier HutchinsonHOU5840

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +10
IND +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 10 · IND 4lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 31%, HOU 69% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
HOU by 5.6
Expected score
HOU 24.6 – 18.9 IND
Expected total
43.5
ColtsThe matchupTexans
+220Our fair odds−220
18.9Expected points24.6
+0.08Power rating+0.69
27.2Points / game22.9
23.4Allowed / game16.6
345Total yards / game326
5.8Yards / play5.1
225Passing yards / game219
8−8Season record11−5
3−7Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · HOU chance
Our model fair31.3%68.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts+22031%————
HOUHouston Texans−22069%————
SpreadHOU by 5.6
INDIndianapolis Colts+5.6our margin————
HOUHouston Texans−5.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.5
Over43.5our total————
Under43.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 5.6 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 45 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 44 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 43 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 7%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Houston Texans by 2 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 7%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 8 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: 2%Houston Texans by 14 points: 2%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 3%Houston Texans by 18 points: 2%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 2%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 2%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 26 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: 1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 1%Houston Texans by 32 points: 1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: 1%Houston Texans by 35 points: 1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 43 points: <1%Houston Texans by 44 points: <1%Houston Texans by 45 points: <1%
← IND wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more59%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more43%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more35%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.5 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.568%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
INDRiley Leonard · last 3 games: 58% completions, 48 yds/game, 0 TD, 2 INTstarted
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 66% completions, 230 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·HOU
Dec 28, 2025 vs JAX
last game
Dec 27, 2025 at LAC
6 days
days of rest
7 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
IND·HOU
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.69
27.2
points / game
22.9
23.4
points allowed / game
16.6
8−8
season record
11−5
6−3
home record
6−2
2−5
away record
5−3
L6
streak
W8
3−7
last 10
9−1
345
total yards / game
326
5.8
yards / play
5.1
225
passing yards / game
219
121
rushing yards / game
107
20.8
first downs / game
18.8
1.2
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

IND · HOU · 53 days
Indianapolis ColtsHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · HOU 5−4
Nov 30, 2025at INDHOU 20 − 16
Oct 27, 2024at HOUHOU 23 − 20
Sep 8, 2024at INDHOU 29 − 27
Jan 6, 2024at INDHOU 23 − 19
Sep 17, 2023at HOUIND 31 − 20
Jan 8, 2023at INDHOU 32 − 31
Sep 11, 2022at HOUIND 20 − 20
Dec 5, 2021at HOUIND 31 − 0
Oct 17, 2021at INDIND 31 − 3

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX17 − 23L
Dec 22, 2025vs SF27 − 48L
Dec 14, 2025at SEA16 − 18L
Dec 7, 2025at JAX19 − 36L
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025at KC20 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025vs ATL31 − 25W
Nov 2, 2025at PIT20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025vs TEN38 − 14W
Oct 19, 2025at LAC38 − 24W

HOU · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Dec 27, 2025at LAC20 − 16W
Dec 21, 2025vs LV23 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs ARI40 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025at KC20 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025at IND20 − 16W
Nov 20, 2025vs BUF23 − 19W
Nov 16, 2025at TEN16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs JAX36 − 29W
Nov 2, 2025vs DEN15 − 18L
Oct 26, 2025vs SF26 − 15W