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Chiefs at Raiders

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final KC 12 – LV 14
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
KC303612
LV060814
Team box
KC·LV
168
total yards
204
84
passing yards
86
84
rushing yards
118
10
first downs
12
3-17
third downs
4-16
2
turnovers
2
29:16
time of possession
30:44
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Chris OladokunKC11/175800
Aidan O'ConnellLV10/2210200
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Brashard SmithKC12560
Ashton JeantyLV26870
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Hollywood BrownKC3640
Michael MayerLV3470

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +5
KC +5
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LV 5 · KC 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 79%, LV 21% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
KC by 8.4
Expected score
KC 22.3 – 13.9 LV
Expected total
36.2
ChiefsThe matchupRaiders
−375Our fair odds+375
22.3Expected points13.9
+0.13Power rating−1.49
21.9Points / game14.2
19.6Allowed / game26.2
330Total yards / game248
5.2Yards / play4.4
222Passing yards / game173
6−10Season record2−14
3−7Last 100−10

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · LV chance
Our model fair78.9%21.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs−37579%————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+37521%————
SpreadKC by 8.4
KCKansas City Chiefs−8.4our margin————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+8.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 36.2
Over36.2our total————
Under36.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 8.4 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 8%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 5%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%
← KC wins byLV wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more69%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more53%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more45%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

36.2 expected
3 points: <1%4 points: <1%5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: 1%14 points: 1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 1%21 points: 2%22 points: 2%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 3%27 points: 3%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 1%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: <1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 29.569%
Total over 36.548%
Total over 43.527%
Total from 30 to 4342%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
KCChris Oladokun · last 2 games: 63% completions, 88 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted
LVAidan O'Connell · last 3 games: 64% completions, 238 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·LV
Dec 25, 2025 vs DEN
last game
Dec 28, 2025 vs NYG
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
KC·LV
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−1.49
21.9
points / game
14.2
19.6
points allowed / game
26.2
6−10
season record
2−14
5−4
home record
1−7
1−6
away record
1−7
L5
streak
L10
3−7
last 10
0−10
330
total yards / game
248
5.2
yards / play
4.4
222
passing yards / game
173
108
rushing yards / game
75
20.4
first downs / game
15.2
0.8
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

KC · LV · 53 days
Kansas City ChiefsLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LV 1−8
Oct 19, 2025at KCKC 31 − 0
Nov 29, 2024at KCKC 19 − 17
Oct 27, 2024at LVKC 27 − 20
Dec 25, 2023at KCLV 20 − 14
Nov 26, 2023at LVKC 31 − 17
Jan 7, 2023at LVKC 31 − 13
Oct 10, 2022at KCKC 30 − 29
Dec 12, 2021at KCKC 48 − 9
Nov 14, 2021at LVKC 41 − 14

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Dec 25, 2025vs DEN13 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at TEN9 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC13 − 16L
Dec 7, 2025vs HOU10 − 20L
Nov 27, 2025at DAL28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs IND23 − 20W
Nov 16, 2025at DEN19 − 22L
Nov 2, 2025at BUF21 − 28L
Oct 27, 2025vs WSH28 − 7W
Oct 19, 2025vs LV31 − 0W

LV · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG10 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025at HOU21 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at PHI0 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN17 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025at LAC14 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs CLE10 − 24L
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL16 − 33L
Nov 6, 2025at DEN7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs JAX29 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025at KC0 − 31L