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Giants at Raiders

NFL · Sunday, Dec 28 · 3:05 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final NYG 34 – LV 10
← NFL / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYG71010734
LV037010
Team box
NYG·LV
343
total yards
231
188
passing yards
168
155
rushing yards
63
22
first downs
14
6-13
third downs
3-13
0
turnovers
2
30:48
time of possession
29:12
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jaxson DartNYG22/3020700
Geno SmithLV20/2817612
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG14620
Ashton JeantyLV16600
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG111130
Michael MayerLV9890

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +24
NYG +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LV 0 · NYG 24lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYG 52%, LV 48% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
LV by 0.6
Expected score
LV 20.4 – 19.8 NYG
Expected total
40.2
GiantsThe matchupRaiders
−108Our fair odds+108
19.8Expected points20.4
−1.01Power rating−1.34
20.9Points / game14.5
27.5Allowed / game25.7
330Total yards / game249
5.1Yards / play4.4
204Passing yards / game173
2−13Season record2−13
1−9Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYG chance · LV chance
Our model fair51.9%48.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYGNew York Giants−10852%————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+10848%————
SpreadLV by 0.6
NYGNew York Giants+0.6our margin————
LVLas Vegas Raiders−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.2
Over40.2our total————
Under40.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Las Vegas Raiders by 0.6 expected
New York Giants by 40 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: 1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: 1%New York Giants by 24 points: 1%New York Giants by 23 points: 1%New York Giants by 22 points: 1%New York Giants by 21 points: 1%New York Giants by 20 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: 1%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 17 points: 2%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: 1%New York Giants by 14 points: 3%New York Giants by 13 points: 1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 11 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 3%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 8 points: 2%New York Giants by 7 points: 5%New York Giants by 6 points: 3%New York Giants by 5 points: 3%New York Giants by 4 points: 3%New York Giants by 3 points: 9%New York Giants by 2 points: 2%New York Giants by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 7%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%
← NYG wins byLV wins by →
Las Vegas Raiders wins by 3 or more45%
Las Vegas Raiders wins by 7 or more29%
Las Vegas Raiders wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.2 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.568%
Total over 40.547%
Total over 47.528%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYGJaxson Dart · last 3 games: 60% completions, 139 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 70% completions, 161 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYG·LV
Dec 21, 2025 vs MIN
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at HOU
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
NYG·LV
−1.01
rating (0 = average)
−1.34
20.9
points / game
14.5
27.5
points allowed / game
25.7
2−13
season record
2−13
2−5
home record
1−6
0−8
away record
1−7
L9
streak
L9
1−9
last 10
1−9
330
total yards / game
249
5.1
yards / play
4.4
204
passing yards / game
173
125
rushing yards / game
76
20.0
first downs / game
15.3
1.1
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

NYG · LV · 50 days
New York GiantsLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · LV 1−1
Nov 5, 2023at LVLV 30 − 6
Nov 7, 2021at NYGNYG 23 − 16

NYG · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Dec 21, 2025vs MIN13 − 16L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH21 − 29L
Dec 1, 2025at NE15 − 33L
Nov 23, 2025at DET27 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025vs GB20 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025at CHI20 − 24L
Nov 2, 2025vs SF24 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025at PHI20 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025at DEN32 − 33L
Oct 9, 2025vs PHI34 − 17W

LV · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Dec 21, 2025at HOU21 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at PHI0 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN17 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025at LAC14 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs CLE10 − 24L
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL16 − 33L
Nov 6, 2025at DEN7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs JAX29 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025at KC0 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs TEN20 − 10W