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Texans at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Final HOU 17 – IND 19
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU0701017
IND3100619
Team box
HOU·IND
223
total yards
300
153
passing yards
211
70
rushing yards
89
17
first downs
19
4-11
third downs
7-15
0
turnovers
3
24:47
time of possession
35:13
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
C.J. StroudHOU16/2716710
Daniel JonesIND24/3623511
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
David MontgomeryHOU11330
Jonathan TaylorIND23680
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Xavier HutchinsonHOU3510
Josh DownsIND5770

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +10
HOU +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 10 · HOU 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 54%, IND 46% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
HOU by 2.6
Expected score
HOU 26.8 – 24.2 IND
Expected total
51.0
TexansThe matchupColts
−117Our fair odds+117
26.8Expected points24.2
+0.13Power rating−0.23
18.5Points / game26.5
28.0Allowed / game37.0
378Total yards / game290
5.0Yards / play5.0
286Passing yards / game180
0−2Season record0−2
7−3Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · IND chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans−11754%————
INDIndianapolis Colts+11746%————
SpreadHOU by 2.6
HOUHouston Texans−2.6our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts+2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 51.0
Over51.0our total————
Under51.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 2.6 expected
Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 2%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 4%Houston Texans by 13 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 7 points: 5%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 5 points: 3%Houston Texans by 4 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 9%Houston Texans by 2 points: 2%Houston Texans by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 7%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%
← HOU wins byIND wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more54%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more35%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

51.0 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 44.564%
Total over 51.546%
Total over 58.530%
Total from 45 to 5835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 54% completions, 280 yds/game, 3 TD, 4 INTstarted
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 67% completions, 145 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·IND
Sep 20 vs CIN
last game
Sep 20 at KC
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
HOU·IND
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
18.5
points / game
26.5
28.0
points allowed / game
37.0
0−2
season record
0−2
0−2
home record
0−1
0−0
away record
0−1
L2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
1−9
378
total yards / game
290
5.0
yards / play
5.0
286
passing yards / game
180
92
rushing yards / game
110
24.0
first downs / game
20.5
1.0
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

HOU · IND · 5 days
Houston TexansIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 4−6
Jan 4at HOUHOU 38 − 30
Nov 30, 2025at INDHOU 20 − 16
Oct 27, 2024at HOUHOU 23 − 20
Sep 8, 2024at INDHOU 29 − 27
Jan 6, 2024at INDHOU 23 − 19
Sep 17, 2023at HOUIND 31 − 20
Jan 8, 2023at INDHOU 32 − 31
Sep 11, 2022at HOUIND 20 − 20
Dec 5, 2021at HOUIND 31 − 0
Oct 17, 2021at INDIND 31 − 3

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak L3
Sep 20vs CIN6 − 20L
Sep 13vs BUF31 − 36L
Jan 18at NE16 − 28L
Jan 12at PIT30 − 6W
Jan 4vs IND38 − 30W
Dec 27, 2025at LAC20 − 16W
Dec 21, 2025vs LV23 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs ARI40 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025at KC20 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025at IND20 − 16W

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Sep 20at KC30 − 33L
Sep 13vs BAL23 − 41L
Jan 4at HOU30 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX17 − 23L
Dec 22, 2025vs SF27 − 48L
Dec 14, 2025at SEA16 − 18L
Dec 7, 2025at JAX19 − 36L
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025at KC20 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025vs ATL31 − 25W