bayesRatings

Ravens at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Final BAL 41 – IND 23
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BAL141701041
IND673723
Team box
BAL·IND
506
total yards
251
304
passing yards
149
202
rushing yards
102
23
first downs
17
3-9
third downs
3-10
1
turnovers
2
35:20
time of possession
24:40
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Lamar JacksonBAL17/2532410
Daniel JonesIND19/3116611
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Derrick HenryBAL241443
Jonathan TaylorIND19982
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Zay FlowersBAL51501
Alec PierceIND4610

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +22
BAL +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 6 · BAL 22lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 50%, IND 50% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
BAL by 1.6
Expected score
BAL 27.6 – 26.0 IND
Expected total
53.6
RavensThe matchupColts
+101Our fair odds−101
27.6Expected points26.0
+0.27Power rating+0.04
0−0Season record0−0
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · IND chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Ravens+10150%————
INDIndianapolis Colts−10150%————
SpreadBAL by 1.6
BALBaltimore Ravens−1.6our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.6
Over53.6our total————
Under53.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 1.6 expected
Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 9%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 7%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%
← BAL wins byIND wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more51%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more32%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.6 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.566%
Total over 53.548%
Total over 60.532%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 65% completions, 163 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 58% completions, 147 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·IND
Jan 4 at PIT
last game
Jan 4 at HOU
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
BAL·IND
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
6−4
last 10
2−8

Rating Trend

BAL · IND · 63 days
Baltimore RavensIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · IND 1−1
Sep 24, 2023at BALIND 22 − 19
Oct 11, 2021at BALBAL 31 − 25

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 4at PIT24 − 26L
Dec 27, 2025at GB41 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025vs NE24 − 28L
Dec 14, 2025at CIN24 − 0W
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT22 − 27L
Nov 27, 2025vs CIN14 − 32L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYJ23 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025at CLE23 − 16W
Nov 9, 2025at MIN27 − 19W
Oct 30, 2025at MIA28 − 6W

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Jan 4at HOU30 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX17 − 23L
Dec 22, 2025vs SF27 − 48L
Dec 14, 2025at SEA16 − 18L
Dec 7, 2025at JAX19 − 36L
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025at KC20 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025vs ATL31 − 25W
Nov 2, 2025at PIT20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025vs TEN38 − 14W