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Colts at Chiefs

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 7:20 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Final IND 30 – KC 33
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
IND71307330
KC10773633
Team box
IND·KC
329
total yards
523
210
passing yards
371
119
rushing yards
152
24
first downs
29
5-12
third downs
5-13
1
turnovers
0
33:00
time of possession
37:00
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Daniel JonesIND22/3121011
Patrick MahomesKC32/4738230
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jonathan TaylorIND24922
Kenneth Walker IIIKC241170
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Josh DownsIND7720
Travis KelceKC91011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +7
IND +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: KC 7 · IND 7lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 38%, KC 62% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
KC by 6.6
Expected score
KC 26.6 – 20.0 IND
Expected total
46.6
ColtsThe matchupChiefs
+161Our fair odds−161
20.0Expected points26.6
−0.14Power rating+0.12
23.0Points / game31.0
41.0Allowed / game10.0
251Total yards / game392
4.7Yards / play5.9
149Passing yards / game172
0−1Season record1−0
1−9Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · KC chance
Our model fair38.4%61.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts+16138%————
KCKansas City Chiefs−16162%————
SpreadKC by 6.6
INDIndianapolis Colts+6.6our margin————
KCKansas City Chiefs−6.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.6
Over46.6our total————
Under46.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 6.6 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 46 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 45 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 44 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 43 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 7%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 41 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 42 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 43 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 44 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 45 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 46 points: <1%
← IND wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more61%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more46%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more38%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.6 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 58% completions, 142 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 51% completions, 178 yds/game, 2 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·KC
Sep 13 vs BAL
last game
Sep 14 vs DEN
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
IND·KC
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
23.0
points / game
31.0
41.0
points allowed / game
10.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−1
home record
1−0
0−0
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
2−8
251
total yards / game
392
4.7
yards / play
5.9
149
passing yards / game
172
102
rushing yards / game
220
17.0
first downs / game
19.0
2.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

IND · KC · 2 days
Indianapolis ColtsKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · KC 1−1
Nov 23, 2025at KCKC 23 − 20
Sep 25, 2022at INDIND 20 − 17

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Sep 13vs BAL23 − 41L
Jan 4at HOU30 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX17 − 23L
Dec 22, 2025vs SF27 − 48L
Dec 14, 2025at SEA16 − 18L
Dec 7, 2025at JAX19 − 36L
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025at KC20 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025vs ATL31 − 25W
Nov 2, 2025at PIT20 − 27L

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Sep 14vs DEN31 − 10W
Jan 4at LV12 − 14L
Dec 25, 2025vs DEN13 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at TEN9 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC13 − 16L
Dec 7, 2025vs HOU10 − 20L
Nov 27, 2025at DAL28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs IND23 − 20W
Nov 16, 2025at DEN19 − 22L
Nov 2, 2025at BUF21 − 28L