bayesRatings

Bengals at Texans

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final CIN 20 – HOU 6
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CIN0710320
HOU03306
Team box
CIN·HOU
267
total yards
374
182
passing yards
314
85
rushing yards
60
12
first downs
22
5-15
third downs
5-17
0
turnovers
0
30:49
time of possession
29:11
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Joe BurrowCIN20/3120720
C.J. StroudHOU30/5535300
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chase BrownCIN20800
C.J. StroudHOU3290
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tee HigginsCIN5950
Dalton SchultzHOU121400

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +14
CIN +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 0 · CIN 14lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 36%, HOU 64% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
HOU by 5.9
Expected score
HOU 29.1 – 23.2 CIN
Expected total
52.4
BengalsThe matchupTexans
+175Our fair odds−175
23.2Expected points29.1
−0.08Power rating+0.28
33.0Points / game31.0
27.0Allowed / game36.0
351Total yards / game381
5.6Yards / play5.2
245Passing yards / game257
1−0Season record0−1
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · HOU chance
Our model fair36.3%63.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Bengals+17536%————
HOUHouston Texans−17564%————
SpreadHOU by 5.9
CINCincinnati Bengals+5.9our margin————
HOUHouston Texans−5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 52.4
Over52.4our total————
Under52.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 5.9 expected
Cincinnati Bengals by 45 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 44 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 43 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 42 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 41 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 7%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Houston Texans by 2 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 7%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 8 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: 2%Houston Texans by 14 points: 2%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 3%Houston Texans by 18 points: 2%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 2%Houston Texans by 21 points: 2%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 2%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 26 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: 1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 2%Houston Texans by 32 points: 1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: 1%Houston Texans by 35 points: 1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 43 points: <1%Houston Texans by 44 points: <1%Houston Texans by 45 points: <1%
← CIN wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more60%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more44%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more36%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

52.4 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 45.565%
Total over 52.547%
Total over 59.531%
Total from 46 to 5934%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 74% completions, 265 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 57% completions, 245 yds/game, 4 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·HOU
Sep 13 vs TB
last game
Sep 13 vs BUF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
CIN·HOU
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
33.0
points / game
31.0
27.0
points allowed / game
36.0
1−0
season record
0−1
1−0
home record
0−1
0−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
8−2
351
total yards / game
381
5.6
yards / play
5.2
245
passing yards / game
257
106
rushing yards / game
124
26.0
first downs / game
26.0
1.0
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

CIN · HOU · 2 days
Cincinnati BengalsHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · HOU 1−0
Nov 12, 2023at CINHOU 30 − 27

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 13vs TB33 − 27W
Jan 4vs CLE18 − 20L
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI37 − 14W
Dec 21, 2025at MIA45 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs BAL0 − 24L
Dec 7, 2025at BUF34 − 39L
Nov 27, 2025at BAL32 − 14W
Nov 23, 2025vs NE20 − 26L
Nov 16, 2025at PIT12 − 34L
Nov 2, 2025vs CHI42 − 47L

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
Sep 13vs BUF31 − 36L
Jan 18at NE16 − 28L
Jan 12at PIT30 − 6W
Jan 4vs IND38 − 30W
Dec 27, 2025at LAC20 − 16W
Dec 21, 2025vs LV23 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs ARI40 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025at KC20 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025at IND20 − 16W
Nov 20, 2025vs BUF23 − 19W