bayesRatings

Buccaneers at Bengals

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Paycor Stadium · Final TB 27 – CIN 33
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TB3710727
CIN14103633
Team box
TB·CIN
282
total yards
351
193
passing yards
245
89
rushing yards
106
19
first downs
26
5-10
third downs
8-14
4
turnovers
1
28:35
time of possession
31:25
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Baker MayfieldTB23/2821600
Joe BurrowCIN25/3525411
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bucky IrvingTB8451
Chase BrownCIN16561
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Emeka EgbukaTB5630
Mike GesickiCIN5781

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +18
TB +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CIN 18 · TB 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 51%, CIN 49% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
TB by 1.0
Expected score
TB 27.8 – 26.8 CIN
Expected total
54.5
BuccaneersThe matchupBengals
−103Our fair odds+103
27.8Expected points26.8
−0.04Power rating−0.32
0−0Season record0−0
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−10351%————
CINCincinnati Bengals+10349%————
SpreadTB by 1.0
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−1our margin————
CINCincinnati Bengals+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 54.5
Over54.5our total————
Under54.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1.0 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 5%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 9%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 7%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%
← TB wins byCIN wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more49%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more31%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

54.5 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 47.565%
Total over 54.548%
Total over 61.532%
Total from 48 to 6133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 73% completions, 231 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 76% completions, 283 yds/game, 9 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·CIN
Jan 3 vs CAR
last game
Jan 4 vs CLE
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
TB·CIN
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.32
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
3−7
last 10
3−7

Rating Trend

TB · CIN · 63 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCincinnati Bengals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CIN 1−0
Dec 18, 2022at TBCIN 34 − 23

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jan 3vs CAR16 − 14W
Dec 28, 2025at MIA17 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at CAR20 − 23L
Dec 11, 2025vs ATL28 − 29L
Dec 7, 2025vs NO20 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025vs ARI20 − 17W
Nov 23, 2025at LAR7 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025at BUF32 − 44L
Nov 9, 2025vs NE23 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at NO23 − 3W

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jan 4vs CLE18 − 20L
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI37 − 14W
Dec 21, 2025at MIA45 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs BAL0 − 24L
Dec 7, 2025at BUF34 − 39L
Nov 27, 2025at BAL32 − 14W
Nov 23, 2025vs NE20 − 26L
Nov 16, 2025at PIT12 − 34L
Nov 2, 2025vs CHI42 − 47L
Oct 26, 2025vs NYJ38 − 39L