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Browns at Bengals

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Paycor Stadium · Final CLE 20 – CIN 18
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE773320
CIN660618
Team box
CLE·CIN
200
total yards
364
82
passing yards
222
118
rushing yards
142
11
first downs
24
5-14
third downs
5-11
1
turnovers
2
24:26
time of possession
35:34
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Shedeur SandersCLE11/2211100
Joe BurrowCIN29/3923631
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Dylan SampsonCLE10320
Chase BrownCIN13720
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Cedric TillmanCLE1230
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN8961

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +8
CLE +8
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CIN 6 · CLE 8lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 29%, CIN 71% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
CIN by 7.7
Expected score
CIN 27.7 – 20.0 CLE
Expected total
47.7
BrownsThe matchupBengals
+247Our fair odds−247
20.0Expected points27.7
−0.96Power rating−0.22
16.2Points / game24.8
22.6Allowed / game29.5
266Total yards / game327
4.4Yards / play5.2
170Passing yards / game236
4−12Season record6−10
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CIN chance
Our model fair28.8%71.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns+24729%————
CINCincinnati Bengals−24771%————
SpreadCIN by 7.7
CLECleveland Browns+7.7our margin————
CINCincinnati Bengals−7.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.7
Over47.7our total————
Under47.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Bengals by 7.7 expected
Cleveland Browns by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 6%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 7%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 41 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 42 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 43 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 44 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 45 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 46 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 47 points: <1%
← CLE wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 3 or more64%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 7 or more49%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 10 or more41%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.7 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.567%
Total over 47.548%
Total over 54.530%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CLEShedeur Sanders · last 3 games: 63% completions, 173 yds/game, 2 TD, 7 INTstarted
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 73% completions, 280 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CIN
Dec 28, 2025 vs PIT
last game
Dec 28, 2025 vs ARI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
CLE·CIN
−0.96
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
16.2
points / game
24.8
22.6
points allowed / game
29.5
4−12
season record
6−10
3−6
home record
3−5
1−6
away record
3−5
W1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
4−6
266
total yards / game
327
4.4
yards / play
5.2
170
passing yards / game
236
96
rushing yards / game
91
16.1
first downs / game
20.5
1.5
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

CLE · CIN · 53 days
Cleveland BrownsCincinnati Bengals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CIN 5−4
Sep 7, 2025at CLECIN 17 − 16
Dec 22, 2024at CINCIN 24 − 6
Oct 20, 2024at CLECIN 21 − 14
Jan 7, 2024at CINCIN 31 − 14
Sep 10, 2023at CLECLE 24 − 3
Dec 11, 2022at CINCIN 23 − 10
Oct 31, 2022at CLECLE 32 − 13
Jan 9, 2022at CLECLE 21 − 16
Nov 7, 2021at CINCLE 41 − 16

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Dec 28, 2025vs PIT13 − 6W
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF20 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at CHI3 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs TEN29 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs SF8 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at LV24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs BAL16 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025at NYJ20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at NE13 − 32L
Oct 19, 2025vs MIA31 − 6W

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI37 − 14W
Dec 21, 2025at MIA45 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs BAL0 − 24L
Dec 7, 2025at BUF34 − 39L
Nov 27, 2025at BAL32 − 14W
Nov 23, 2025vs NE20 − 26L
Nov 16, 2025at PIT12 − 34L
Nov 2, 2025vs CHI42 − 47L
Oct 26, 2025vs NYJ38 − 39L
Oct 16, 2025vs PIT33 − 31W