bayesRatings

Bills at Texans

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final BUF 36 – HOU 31
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BUF3213936
HOU71401031
Team box
BUF·HOU
409
total yards
381
323
passing yards
257
86
rushing yards
124
20
first downs
26
3-9
third downs
7-16
0
turnovers
2
23:43
time of possession
36:17
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh AllenBUF20/2933420
C.J. StroudHOU26/3827420
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF13570
David MontgomeryHOU20602
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Dalton KincaidBUF51300
Nico CollinsHOU7751

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +10
BUF +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 4 · BUF 10lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 45%, HOU 55% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
HOU by 0.6
Expected score
HOU 23.4 – 22.8 BUF
Expected total
46.1
BillsThe matchupTexans
+124Our fair odds−124
22.8Expected points23.4
+0.75Power rating+0.72
0−0Season record0−0
7−3Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · HOU chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills+12445%————
HOUHouston Texans−12455%————
SpreadHOU by 0.6
BUFBuffalo Bills+0.6our margin————
HOUHouston Texans−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.1
Over46.1our total————
Under46.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 0.6 expected
Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 9%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Houston Texans by 2 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 7%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 8 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 13 points: 1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 2%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: <1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%
← BUF wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more45%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more29%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.1 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.566%
Total over 46.546%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 70% completions, 273 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 54% completions, 210 yds/game, 3 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·HOU
Jan 17 at DEN
last game
Jan 18 at NE
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
BUF·HOU
+0.75
rating (0 = average)
+0.72
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
7−3
last 10
9−1

Rating Trend

BUF · HOU · 63 days
Buffalo BillsHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · HOU 2−1
Nov 20, 2025at HOUHOU 23 − 19
Oct 6, 2024at HOUHOU 23 − 20
Oct 3, 2021at BUFBUF 40 − 0

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 17at DEN30 − 33L
Jan 11at JAX27 − 24W
Jan 4vs NYJ35 − 8W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI12 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at CLE23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NE35 − 31W
Dec 7, 2025vs CIN39 − 34W
Nov 30, 2025at PIT26 − 7W
Nov 20, 2025at HOU19 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs TB44 − 32W

HOU · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Jan 18at NE16 − 28L
Jan 12at PIT30 − 6W
Jan 4vs IND38 − 30W
Dec 27, 2025at LAC20 − 16W
Dec 21, 2025vs LV23 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs ARI40 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025at KC20 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025at IND20 − 16W
Nov 20, 2025vs BUF23 − 19W
Nov 16, 2025at TEN16 − 13W