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Falcons at Saints

NFL · Monday, Oct 5 · 7:15 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · Final ATL 45 – NO 24
← NFL / Oct 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL141071445
NO0731424
Team box
ATL·NO
420
total yards
320
215
passing yards
270
205
rushing yards
50
24
first downs
22
4-8
third downs
6-15
0
turnovers
1
30:45
time of possession
29:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.ATL15/2022310
Tyler ShoughNO30/4828610
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL191452
Alvin KamaraNO7232
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Drake LondonATL5960
Chris OlaveNO81160

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +28
ATL +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 0 · ATL 28lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 46%, NO 54% · Updated Oct 5

Expected margin
NO by 1.2
Expected score
NO 22.2 – 20.9 ATL
Expected total
43.1
FalconsThe matchupSaints
+117Our fair odds−117
20.9Expected points22.2
−0.20Power rating−0.27
17.0Points / game27.0
22.7Allowed / game27.7
341Total yards / game383
5.3Yards / play5.2
168Passing yards / game281
1−2Season record1−2
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NO chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons+11746%————
NONew Orleans Saints−11754%————
SpreadNO by 1.2
ATLAtlanta Falcons+1.2our margin————
NONew Orleans Saints−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.1
Over43.1our total————
Under43.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Saints by 1.2 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 5%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 9%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%
← ATL wins byNO wins by →
New Orleans Saints wins by 3 or more46%
New Orleans Saints wins by 7 or more30%
New Orleans Saints wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.1 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.567%
Total over 43.547%
Total over 50.528%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 62% completions, 203 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 69% completions, 306 yds/game, 8 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NO
Sep 24 at GB
last game
Sep 27 vs LV
10 days
days of rest
7 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
ATL·NO
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.27
17.0
points / game
27.0
22.7
points allowed / game
27.7
1−2
season record
1−2
0−1
home record
0−1
1−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
341
total yards / game
383
5.3
yards / play
5.2
168
passing yards / game
281
173
rushing yards / game
101
19.3
first downs / game
25.0
2.7
turnovers / game
2.3

Rating Trend

ATL · NO · 9 days
Atlanta FalconsNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 5−5
Jan 4at ATLATL 19 − 17
Nov 23, 2025at NOATL 24 − 10
Nov 10, 2024at NONO 20 − 17
Sep 29, 2024at ATLATL 26 − 24
Jan 7, 2024at NONO 48 − 17
Nov 26, 2023at ATLATL 24 − 15
Dec 18, 2022at NONO 21 − 18
Sep 11, 2022at ATLNO 27 − 26
Jan 9, 2022at ATLNO 30 − 20
Nov 7, 2021at NOATL 27 − 25

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 24at GB35 − 14W
Sep 20vs CAR3 − 34L
Sep 13at PIT13 − 20L
Jan 4vs NO19 − 17W
Dec 29, 2025vs LAR27 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025at ARI26 − 19W
Dec 11, 2025at TB29 − 28W
Dec 7, 2025vs SEA9 − 37L
Nov 30, 2025at NYJ24 − 27L
Nov 23, 2025at NO24 − 10W

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 27vs LV27 − 35L
Sep 20at BAL24 − 17W
Sep 13at DET30 − 31L
Jan 4at ATL17 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at TEN34 − 26W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 6W
Dec 14, 2025vs CAR20 − 17W
Dec 7, 2025at TB24 − 20W
Nov 30, 2025at MIA17 − 21L
Nov 23, 2025vs ATL10 − 24L