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Panthers at Falcons

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final CAR 34 – ATL 3
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CAR101014034
ATL03003
Team box
CAR·ATL
340
total yards
286
272
passing yards
129
68
rushing yards
157
18
first downs
17
6-14
third downs
4-13
0
turnovers
5
29:31
time of possession
30:29
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bryce YoungCAR23/3628730
Cooper RushATL10/178602
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chuba HubbardCAR12530
Bijan RobinsonATL16720
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tetairoa McMillanCAR51010
Drake LondonATL4510

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +31
CAR +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 0 · CAR 31lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 39%, ATL 61% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
ATL by 5.5
Expected score
ATL 26.6 – 21.1 CAR
Expected total
47.7
PanthersThe matchupFalcons
+155Our fair odds−155
21.1Expected points26.6
−0.39Power rating−0.16
37.0Points / game13.0
59.0Allowed / game20.0
478Total yards / game238
7.7Yards / play4.2
353Passing yards / game118
0−1Season record0−1
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · ATL chance
Our model fair39.1%60.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Panthers+15539%————
ATLAtlanta Falcons−15561%————
SpreadATL by 5.5
CARCarolina Panthers+5.5our margin————
ATLAtlanta Falcons−5.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.7
Over47.7our total————
Under47.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Falcons by 5.5 expected
Carolina Panthers by 45 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 44 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 43 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 42 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 41 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 7%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 7%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 45 points: <1%
← CAR wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Falcons wins by 3 or more58%
Atlanta Falcons wins by 7 or more43%
Atlanta Falcons wins by 10 or more34%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.7 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.567%
Total over 47.548%
Total over 54.530%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 61% completions, 297 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted
ATLCooper Rush · last 3 games: 61% completions, 131 yds/game, 1 TD, 6 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·ATL
Sep 13 vs CHI
last game
Sep 13 at PIT
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
CAR·ATL
−0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
37.0
points / game
13.0
59.0
points allowed / game
20.0
0−1
season record
0−1
0−1
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
478
total yards / game
238
7.7
yards / play
4.2
353
passing yards / game
118
125
rushing yards / game
120
24.0
first downs / game
16.0
3.0
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

CAR · ATL · 2 days
Carolina PanthersAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Nov 16, 2025at ATLCAR 30 − 27
Sep 21, 2025at CARCAR 30 − 0
Jan 5, 2025at ATLCAR 44 − 38
Oct 13, 2024at CARATL 38 − 20
Dec 17, 2023at CARCAR 9 − 7
Sep 10, 2023at ATLATL 24 − 10
Nov 10, 2022at CARCAR 25 − 15
Oct 30, 2022at ATLATL 37 − 34
Dec 12, 2021at CARATL 29 − 21
Oct 31, 2021at ATLCAR 19 − 13

CAR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Sep 13vs CHI37 − 59L
Jan 10vs LAR31 − 34L
Jan 3at TB14 − 16L
Dec 28, 2025vs SEA10 − 27L
Dec 21, 2025vs TB23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NO17 − 20L
Nov 30, 2025vs LAR31 − 28W
Nov 24, 2025at SF9 − 20L
Nov 16, 2025at ATL30 − 27W
Nov 9, 2025vs NO7 − 17L

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 13at PIT13 − 20L
Jan 4vs NO19 − 17W
Dec 29, 2025vs LAR27 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025at ARI26 − 19W
Dec 11, 2025at TB29 − 28W
Dec 7, 2025vs SEA9 − 37L
Nov 30, 2025at NYJ24 − 27L
Nov 23, 2025at NO24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs CAR27 − 30L
Nov 9, 2025at IND25 − 31L