bayesRatings

Bears at Panthers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · Final CHI 59 – CAR 37
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI1417141459
CAR7177637
Team box
CHI·CAR
552
total yards
478
261
passing yards
353
291
rushing yards
125
26
first downs
24
10-14
third downs
4-9
1
turnovers
3
34:03
time of possession
25:57
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Caleb WilliamsCHI21/2926920
Bryce YoungCAR23/3736131
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
D'Andre SwiftCHI181243
Chuba HubbardCAR10491
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Kalif RaymondCHI8840
Jalen CokerCAR81382

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +22
CHI +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CAR 7 · CHI 22lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 58%, CAR 42% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
CHI by 3.5
Expected score
CHI 24.6 – 21.1 CAR
Expected total
45.7
BearsThe matchupPanthers
−140Our fair odds+140
24.6Expected points21.1
+0.19Power rating−0.41
0−0Season record0−0
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · CAR chance
Our model fair58.4%41.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears−14058%————
CARCarolina Panthers+14042%————
SpreadCHI by 3.5
CHIChicago Bears−3.5our margin————
CARCarolina Panthers+3.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.7
Over45.7our total————
Under45.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bears by 3.5 expected
Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 5%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 9%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 7%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%
← CHI wins byCAR wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more56%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more37%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.7 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 54% completions, 277 yds/game, 6 TD, 6 INTstarted
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 60% completions, 195 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·CAR
Jan 18 vs LAR
last game
Jan 10 vs LAR
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
CHI·CAR
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.41
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
6−4
last 10
4−6

Rating Trend

CHI · CAR · 63 days
Chicago BearsCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CAR 0−2
Oct 6, 2024at CHICHI 36 − 10
Nov 9, 2023at CHICHI 16 − 13

CHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 18vs LAR17 − 20L
Jan 10vs GB31 − 27W
Jan 4vs DET16 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at SF38 − 42L
Dec 20, 2025vs GB22 − 16W
Dec 14, 2025vs CLE31 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025at GB21 − 28L
Nov 28, 2025at PHI24 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025vs PIT31 − 28W
Nov 16, 2025at MIN19 − 17W

CAR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jan 10vs LAR31 − 34L
Jan 3at TB14 − 16L
Dec 28, 2025vs SEA10 − 27L
Dec 21, 2025vs TB23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NO17 − 20L
Nov 30, 2025vs LAR31 − 28W
Nov 24, 2025at SF9 − 20L
Nov 16, 2025at ATL30 − 27W
Nov 9, 2025vs NO7 − 17L
Nov 2, 2025at GB16 − 13W