bayesRatings

Saints at Falcons

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final NO 17 – ATL 19
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO073717
ATL733619
Team box
NO·ATL
340
total yards
208
232
passing yards
159
108
rushing yards
49
16
first downs
14
5-16
third downs
4-14
2
turnovers
1
31:19
time of possession
28:41
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyler ShoughNO23/3525911
Kirk CousinsATL18/3218011
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Audric EstimeNO21630
Bijan RobinsonATL15330
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Juwan JohnsonNO3610
Drake LondonATL4781

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +10
NO +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 10 · NO 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 39%, ATL 61% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
ATL by 4.3
Expected score
ATL 22.8 – 18.5 NO
Expected total
41.2
SaintsThe matchupFalcons
+154Our fair odds−154
18.5Expected points22.8
−0.49Power rating−0.26
18.1Points / game20.9
22.8Allowed / game24.0
312Total yards / game341
5.0Yards / play5.5
218Passing yards / game210
6−10Season record7−9
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · ATL chance
Our model fair39.4%60.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Saints+15439%————
ATLAtlanta Falcons−15461%————
SpreadATL by 4.3
NONew Orleans Saints+4.3our margin————
ATLAtlanta Falcons−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.2
Over41.2our total————
Under41.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Falcons by 4.3 expected
New Orleans Saints by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 7%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 44 points: <1%
← NO wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Falcons wins by 3 or more55%
Atlanta Falcons wins by 7 or more39%
Atlanta Falcons wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.2 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.568%
Total over 41.547%
Total over 48.528%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 72% completions, 304 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
ATLKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 65% completions, 232 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·ATL
Dec 28, 2025 at TEN
last game
Dec 29, 2025 vs LAR
6 days
days of rest
5 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
NO·ATL
−0.49
rating (0 = average)
−0.26
18.1
points / game
20.9
22.8
points allowed / game
24.0
6−10
season record
7−9
3−5
home record
3−4
3−5
away record
4−5
W4
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
4−6
312
total yards / game
341
5.0
yards / play
5.5
218
passing yards / game
210
93
rushing yards / game
131
18.9
first downs / game
19.8
1.4
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

NO · ATL · 53 days
New Orleans SaintsAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATL 4−5
Nov 23, 2025at NOATL 24 − 10
Nov 10, 2024at NONO 20 − 17
Sep 29, 2024at ATLATL 26 − 24
Jan 7, 2024at NONO 48 − 17
Nov 26, 2023at ATLATL 24 − 15
Dec 18, 2022at NONO 21 − 18
Sep 11, 2022at ATLNO 27 − 26
Jan 9, 2022at ATLNO 30 − 20
Nov 7, 2021at NOATL 27 − 25

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Dec 28, 2025at TEN34 − 26W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 6W
Dec 14, 2025vs CAR20 − 17W
Dec 7, 2025at TB24 − 20W
Nov 30, 2025at MIA17 − 21L
Nov 23, 2025vs ATL10 − 24L
Nov 9, 2025at CAR17 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at LAR10 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025vs TB3 − 23L
Oct 19, 2025at CHI14 − 26L

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Dec 29, 2025vs LAR27 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025at ARI26 − 19W
Dec 11, 2025at TB29 − 28W
Dec 7, 2025vs SEA9 − 37L
Nov 30, 2025at NYJ24 − 27L
Nov 23, 2025at NO24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs CAR27 − 30L
Nov 9, 2025at IND25 − 31L
Nov 2, 2025at NE23 − 24L
Oct 26, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L