bayesRatings

Falcons at Steelers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · Final ATL 13 – PIT 20
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL703313
PIT3100720
Team box
ATL·PIT
238
total yards
264
118
passing yards
206
120
rushing yards
58
16
first downs
15
2-12
third downs
3-13
2
turnovers
1
31:07
time of possession
28:53
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Cooper RushATL12/2214312
Aaron RodgersPIT24/4022110
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL21830
Jaylen WarrenPIT10460
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL8901
Michael Pittman Jr.PIT3580

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +10
ATL +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 10 · ATL 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 39%, PIT 61% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
PIT by 4.3
Expected score
PIT 24.3 – 20.1 ATL
Expected total
44.4
FalconsThe matchupSteelers
+159Our fair odds−159
20.1Expected points24.3
−0.20Power rating+0.04
0−0Season record0−0
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair38.5%61.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons+15939%————
PITPittsburgh Steelers−15961%————
SpreadPIT by 4.3
ATLAtlanta Falcons+4.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.4
Over44.4our total————
Under44.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Steelers by 4.3 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 7%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 41 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 42 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 43 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 44 points: <1%
← ATL wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 3 or more55%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 7 or more39%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.4 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.567%
Total over 44.547%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ATLCooper Rush · last 3 games: 65% completions, 101 yds/game, 0 TD, 4 INTstarted
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 58% completions, 203 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·PIT
Jan 4 vs NO
last game
Jan 12 vs HOU
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
ATL·PIT
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
5−5
last 10
5−5

Rating Trend

ATL · PIT · 63 days
Atlanta FalconsPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · PIT 2−0
Sep 8, 2024at ATLPIT 18 − 10
Dec 4, 2022at ATLPIT 19 − 16

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Jan 4vs NO19 − 17W
Dec 29, 2025vs LAR27 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025at ARI26 − 19W
Dec 11, 2025at TB29 − 28W
Dec 7, 2025vs SEA9 − 37L
Nov 30, 2025at NYJ24 − 27L
Nov 23, 2025at NO24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs CAR27 − 30L
Nov 9, 2025at IND25 − 31L
Nov 2, 2025at NE23 − 24L

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 12vs HOU6 − 30L
Jan 4vs BAL26 − 24W
Dec 28, 2025at CLE6 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at DET29 − 24W
Dec 15, 2025vs MIA28 − 15W
Dec 7, 2025at BAL27 − 22W
Nov 30, 2025vs BUF7 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at CHI28 − 31L
Nov 16, 2025vs CIN34 − 12W
Nov 9, 2025at LAC10 − 25L