bayesRatings

Saints at Ravens

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 12:00 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Final NO 24 – BAL 17
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO0631524
BAL773017
Team box
NO·BAL
298
total yards
312
233
passing yards
204
65
rushing yards
108
19
first downs
19
8-15
third downs
4-9
0
turnovers
1
32:45
time of possession
27:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyler ShoughNO27/3425210
Lamar JacksonBAL21/3123511
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Travis Etienne Jr.NO8250
Derrick HenryBAL16681
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Chris OlaveNO8861
Rashod BatemanBAL7881

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +11
NO +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BAL 11 · NO 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 32%, BAL 68% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
BAL by 10.8
Expected score
BAL 29.0 – 18.2 NO
Expected total
47.3
SaintsThe matchupRavens
+210Our fair odds−210
18.2Expected points29.0
−0.28Power rating+0.28
30.0Points / game41.0
31.0Allowed / game23.0
469Total yards / game506
5.5Yards / play7.9
378Passing yards / game304
0−1Season record1−0
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · BAL chance
Our model fair32.3%67.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Saints+21032%————
BALBaltimore Ravens−21068%————
SpreadBAL by 10.8
NONew Orleans Saints+10.8our margin————
BALBaltimore Ravens−10.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.3
Over47.3our total————
Under47.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 10.8 expected
New Orleans Saints by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 5%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 6%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 43 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 44 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 45 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 46 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 47 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 48 points: <1%
← NO wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more72%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more57%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more49%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.3 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.567%
Total over 47.547%
Total over 54.529%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 68% completions, 334 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 66% completions, 221 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·BAL
Sep 13 at DET
last game
Sep 13 at IND
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
NO·BAL
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
30.0
points / game
41.0
31.0
points allowed / game
23.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
1−0
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
469
total yards / game
506
5.5
yards / play
7.9
378
passing yards / game
304
91
rushing yards / game
202
29.0
first downs / game
23.0
3.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

NO · BAL · 2 days
New Orleans SaintsBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · BAL 1−0
Nov 7, 2022at NOBAL 27 − 13

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Sep 13at DET30 − 31L
Jan 4at ATL17 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at TEN34 − 26W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 6W
Dec 14, 2025vs CAR20 − 17W
Dec 7, 2025at TB24 − 20W
Nov 30, 2025at MIA17 − 21L
Nov 23, 2025vs ATL10 − 24L
Nov 9, 2025at CAR17 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at LAR10 − 34L

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 13at IND41 − 23W
Jan 4at PIT24 − 26L
Dec 27, 2025at GB41 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025vs NE24 − 28L
Dec 14, 2025at CIN24 − 0W
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT22 − 27L
Nov 27, 2025vs CIN14 − 32L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYJ23 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025at CLE23 − 16W
Nov 9, 2025at MIN27 − 19W