bayesRatings

Saints at Lions

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Ford Field · Final NO 30 – DET 31
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
NO001410630
DET70143731
Team box
NO·DET
469
total yards
369
378
passing yards
204
91
rushing yards
165
29
first downs
26
8-17
third downs
5-13
3
turnovers
1
31:35
time of possession
36:51
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyler ShoughNO35/5641032
Jared GoffDET26/3920620
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Travis Etienne Jr.NO9460
Jahmyr GibbsDET291562
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Chris OlaveNO101820
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET10672

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +21
NO +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: DET 21 · NO 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 24%, DET 76% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
DET by 10.5
Expected score
DET 29.5 – 19.0 NO
Expected total
48.5
SaintsThe matchupLions
+321Our fair odds−321
19.0Expected points29.5
−0.49Power rating+0.50
0−0Season record0−0
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · DET chance
Our model fair23.8%76.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Saints+32124%————
DETDetroit Lions−32176%————
SpreadDET by 10.5
NONew Orleans Saints+10.5our margin————
DETDetroit Lions−10.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.5
Over48.5our total————
Under48.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 10.5 expected
New Orleans Saints by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 5%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 6%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 29 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 32 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 42 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 43 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 44 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 45 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 46 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 47 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 48 points: <1%
← NO wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more71%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more57%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more48%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.5 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.547%
Total over 55.530%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 69% completions, 300 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 63% completions, 297 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·DET
Jan 4 at ATL
last game
Jan 4 at CHI
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
NO·DET
−0.49
rating (0 = average)
+0.50
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
5−5
last 10
4−6

Rating Trend

NO · DET · 63 days
New Orleans SaintsDetroit Lions
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DET 1−0
Dec 3, 2023at NODET 33 − 28

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 4at ATL17 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at TEN34 − 26W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 6W
Dec 14, 2025vs CAR20 − 17W
Dec 7, 2025at TB24 − 20W
Nov 30, 2025at MIA17 − 21L
Nov 23, 2025vs ATL10 − 24L
Nov 9, 2025at CAR17 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at LAR10 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025vs TB3 − 23L

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 4at CHI19 − 16W
Dec 25, 2025at MIN10 − 23L
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT24 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at LAR34 − 41L
Dec 4, 2025vs DAL44 − 30W
Nov 27, 2025vs GB24 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYG34 − 27W
Nov 16, 2025at PHI9 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025at WSH44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L