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Falcons at Packers

NFL · Thursday, Sep 24 · 7:15 PM CT · Lambeau Field · Final ATL 35 – GB 14
← NFL / Sep 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL71071135
GB700714
Team box
ATL·GB
498
total yards
328
256
passing yards
311
242
rushing yards
17
25
first downs
18
6-10
third downs
6-15
1
turnovers
1
37:05
time of possession
22:55
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.ATL18/2525611
Jordan LoveGB28/5331221
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL291942
MarShawn LloydGB4110
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Drake LondonATL91940
Matthew GoldenGB51001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GB +21
ATL +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GB 7 · ATL 21lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 35%, GB 65% · Updated Sep 24

Expected margin
GB by 7.6
Expected score
GB 25.5 – 17.9 ATL
Expected total
43.4
FalconsThe matchupPackers
+184Our fair odds−184
17.9Expected points25.5
−0.40Power rating+0.06
8.0Points / game21.0
27.0Allowed / game28.0
262Total yards / game309
4.2Yards / play5.2
124Passing yards / game244
0−2Season record1−1
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · GB chance
Our model fair35.2%64.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons+18435%————
GBGreen Bay Packers−18465%————
SpreadGB by 7.6
ATLAtlanta Falcons+7.6our margin————
GBGreen Bay Packers−7.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.4
Over43.4our total————
Under43.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Green Bay Packers by 7.6 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 6%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 2%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 7%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 41 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 42 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 43 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 44 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 45 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 46 points: <1%
← ATL wins byGB wins by →
Green Bay Packers wins by 3 or more64%
Green Bay Packers wins by 7 or more49%
Green Bay Packers wins by 10 or more40%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.4 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.568%
Total over 43.547%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 58% completions, 191 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 52% completions, 285 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·GB
Sep 20 vs CAR
last game
Sep 20 at NYJ
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
ATL·GB
−0.40
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
8.0
points / game
21.0
27.0
points allowed / game
28.0
0−2
season record
1−1
0−1
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
1−1
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
262
total yards / game
309
4.2
yards / play
5.2
124
passing yards / game
244
138
rushing yards / game
64
16.5
first downs / game
17.5
3.5
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

ATL · GB · 4 days
Atlanta FalconsGreen Bay Packers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · GB 0−1
Sep 17, 2023at ATLATL 25 − 24

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Sep 20vs CAR3 − 34L
Sep 13at PIT13 − 20L
Jan 4vs NO19 − 17W
Dec 29, 2025vs LAR27 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025at ARI26 − 19W
Dec 11, 2025at TB29 − 28W
Dec 7, 2025vs SEA9 − 37L
Nov 30, 2025at NYJ24 − 27L
Nov 23, 2025at NO24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs CAR27 − 30L

GB · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 20at NYJ20 − 17W
Sep 13at MIN22 − 39L
Jan 10at CHI27 − 31L
Jan 4at MIN3 − 16L
Dec 27, 2025vs BAL24 − 41L
Dec 20, 2025at CHI16 − 22L
Dec 14, 2025at DEN26 − 34L
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI28 − 21W
Nov 27, 2025at DET31 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025vs MIN23 − 6W