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Packers at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final GB 20 – NYJ 17
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
GB07010320
NYJ0773017
Team box
GB·NYJ
199
total yards
285
136
passing yards
218
63
rushing yards
67
16
first downs
21
1-9
third downs
8-19
1
turnovers
0
26:57
time of possession
37:40
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB16/2914520
Geno SmithNYJ27/4124710
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kaleb JohnsonGB8320
Breece HallNYJ16290
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Matthew GoldenGB4580
Breece HallNYJ5630

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYJ +10
GB +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: NYJ 10 · GB 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 57%, NYJ 43% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
GB by 5.6
Expected score
GB 25.7 – 20.1 NYJ
Expected total
45.7
PackersThe matchupJets
−131Our fair odds+131
25.7Expected points20.1
+0.03Power rating−0.52
22.0Points / game23.0
39.0Allowed / game10.0
419Total yards / game367
6.3Yards / play5.8
353Passing yards / game215
0−1Season record1−0
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair56.7%43.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers−13157%————
NYJNew York Jets+13143%————
SpreadGB by 5.6
GBGreen Bay Packers−5.6our margin————
NYJNew York Jets+5.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.7
Over45.7our total————
Under45.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Green Bay Packers by 5.6 expected
Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 5%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 9%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%New York Jets by 2 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 6%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 6 points: 3%New York Jets by 7 points: 3%New York Jets by 8 points: 2%New York Jets by 9 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: 1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: 1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%
← GB wins byNYJ wins by →
Green Bay Packers wins by 3 or more62%
Green Bay Packers wins by 7 or more44%
Green Bay Packers wins by 10 or more35%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.7 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 52% completions, 262 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
NYJGeno Smith · last 3 games: 73% completions, 197 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·NYJ
Sep 13 at MIN
last game
Sep 13 at TEN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
GB·NYJ
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.52
22.0
points / game
23.0
39.0
points allowed / game
10.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
1−0
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
419
total yards / game
367
6.3
yards / play
5.8
353
passing yards / game
215
66
rushing yards / game
152
19.0
first downs / game
19.0
2.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

GB · NYJ · 2 days
Green Bay PackersNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NYJ 1−0
Oct 16, 2022at GBNYJ 27 − 10

GB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L6
Sep 13at MIN22 − 39L
Jan 10at CHI27 − 31L
Jan 4at MIN3 − 16L
Dec 27, 2025vs BAL24 − 41L
Dec 20, 2025at CHI16 − 22L
Dec 14, 2025at DEN26 − 34L
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI28 − 21W
Nov 27, 2025at DET31 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025vs MIN23 − 6W
Nov 16, 2025at NYG27 − 20W

NYJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 13at TEN23 − 10W
Jan 4at BUF8 − 35L
Dec 28, 2025vs NE10 − 42L
Dec 21, 2025at NO6 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at JAX20 − 48L
Dec 7, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL27 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025at BAL10 − 23L
Nov 13, 2025at NE14 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025vs CLE27 − 20W