bayesRatings

Jets at Titans

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Nissan Stadium · Final NYJ 23 – TEN 10
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYJ7310323
TEN300710
Team box
NYJ·TEN
367
total yards
195
215
passing yards
127
152
rushing yards
68
19
first downs
11
2-12
third downs
4-12
0
turnovers
1
38:46
time of possession
21:14
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Geno SmithNYJ19/2421500
Cam WardTEN19/3214010
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Breece HallNYJ221021
Tony PollardTEN7350
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Garrett WilsonNYJ6790
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN5380

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEN +20
NYJ +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TEN 0 · NYJ 20lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYJ 42%, TEN 58% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
TEN by 3.2
Expected score
TEN 24.2 – 21.0 NYJ
Expected total
45.3
JetsThe matchupTitans
+137Our fair odds−137
21.0Expected points24.2
−1.21Power rating−1.12
0−0Season record0−0
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · TEN chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+13742%————
TENTennessee Titans−13758%————
SpreadTEN by 3.2
NYJNew York Jets+3.2our margin————
TENTennessee Titans−3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.3
Over45.3our total————
Under45.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tennessee Titans by 3.2 expected
New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: 1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: 1%New York Jets by 23 points: 1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 20 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: 1%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: 2%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 11 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 2%New York Jets by 9 points: 1%New York Jets by 8 points: 2%New York Jets by 7 points: 4%New York Jets by 6 points: 3%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 4 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 8%New York Jets by 2 points: 2%New York Jets by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 7%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 4%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 4%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 41 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 42 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byTEN wins by →
Tennessee Titans wins by 3 or more52%
Tennessee Titans wins by 7 or more36%
Tennessee Titans wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.3 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.547%
Total over 52.529%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYJGeno Smith · last 3 games: 68% completions, 164 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 63% completions, 177 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·TEN
Jan 4 at BUF
last game
Jan 4 at JAX
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
NYJ·TEN
−1.21
rating (0 = average)
−1.12
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
3−7
last 10
2−8

Rating Trend

NYJ · TEN · 63 days
New York JetsTennessee Titans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · TEN 0−2
Sep 15, 2024at TENNYJ 24 − 17
Oct 3, 2021at NYJNYJ 27 − 24

NYJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Jan 4at BUF8 − 35L
Dec 28, 2025vs NE10 − 42L
Dec 21, 2025at NO6 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at JAX20 − 48L
Dec 7, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL27 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025at BAL10 − 23L
Nov 13, 2025at NE14 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025vs CLE27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025at CIN39 − 38W

TEN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Jan 4at JAX7 − 41L
Dec 28, 2025vs NO26 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025vs KC26 − 9W
Dec 14, 2025at SF24 − 37L
Dec 7, 2025at CLE31 − 29W
Nov 30, 2025vs JAX3 − 25L
Nov 23, 2025vs SEA24 − 30L
Nov 16, 2025vs HOU13 − 16L
Nov 2, 2025vs LAC20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at IND14 − 38L