bayesRatings

Raiders at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 3:25 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · Final LV 35 – NO 27
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LV31361335
NO6714027
Team box
LV·NO
340
total yards
381
227
passing yards
233
113
rushing yards
148
24
first downs
27
7-12
third downs
9-15
1
turnovers
4
27:32
time of possession
32:28
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Kirk CousinsLV22/3324830
Tyler ShoughNO29/4225541
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Ashton JeantyLV19560
Travis Etienne Jr.NO13570
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Brock BowersLV101161
Chris OlaveNO91070

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +11
LV +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 11 · LV 8lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LV 41%, NO 59% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
NO by 4.6
Expected score
NO 21.2 – 16.6 LV
Expected total
37.9
RaidersThe matchupSaints
+144Our fair odds−144
16.6Expected points21.2
−0.38Power rating−0.18
26.5Points / game27.0
13.5Allowed / game24.0
298Total yards / game384
4.7Yards / play5.1
204Passing yards / game306
2−0Season record1−1
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LV chance · NO chance
Our model fair41.0%59.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LVLas Vegas Raiders+14441%————
NONew Orleans Saints−14459%————
SpreadNO by 4.6
LVLas Vegas Raiders+4.6our margin————
NONew Orleans Saints−4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 37.9
Over37.9our total————
Under37.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Saints by 4.6 expected
Las Vegas Raiders by 44 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 43 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 42 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 7%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 44 points: <1%
← LV wins byNO wins by →
New Orleans Saints wins by 3 or more56%
New Orleans Saints wins by 7 or more40%
New Orleans Saints wins by 10 or more32%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

37.9 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 30.570%
Total over 37.549%
Total over 44.529%
Total from 31 to 4441%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LVKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 64% completions, 198 yds/game, 7 TD, 4 INTstarted
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 68% completions, 307 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LV·NO
Sep 20 at LAC
last game
Sep 20 at BAL
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
LV·NO
−0.38
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
26.5
points / game
27.0
13.5
points allowed / game
24.0
2−0
season record
1−1
1−0
home record
0−0
1−0
away record
1−1
W2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
298
total yards / game
384
4.7
yards / play
5.1
204
passing yards / game
306
94
rushing yards / game
78
17.5
first downs / game
24.0
1.5
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

LV · NO · 5 days
Las Vegas RaidersNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · NO 1−1
Dec 29, 2024at NOLV 25 − 10
Oct 30, 2022at NONO 24 − 0

LV · Last 10

3−7 · streak W3
Sep 20at LAC26 − 14W
Sep 13vs MIA27 − 13W
Jan 4vs KC14 − 12W
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG10 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025at HOU21 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at PHI0 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN17 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025at LAC14 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs CLE10 − 24L
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL16 − 33L

NO · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 20at BAL24 − 17W
Sep 13at DET30 − 31L
Jan 4at ATL17 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at TEN34 − 26W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 6W
Dec 14, 2025vs CAR20 − 17W
Dec 7, 2025at TB24 − 20W
Nov 30, 2025at MIA17 − 21L
Nov 23, 2025vs ATL10 − 24L
Nov 9, 2025at CAR17 − 7W