bayesRatings

Dolphins at Raiders

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 3:25 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final MIA 13 – LV 27
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA067013
LV71010027
Team box
MIA·LV
259
total yards
290
185
passing yards
160
74
rushing yards
130
13
first downs
21
2-10
third downs
5-13
2
turnovers
2
25:07
time of possession
34:53
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Malik WillisMIA15/2722001
Kirk CousinsLV21/3016032
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Malik WillisMIA6391
Ashton JeantyLV231020
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Caleb DouglasMIA5940
Ashton JeantyLV6452

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +14
MIA +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LV 14 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 65%, LV 35% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
MIA by 3.3
Expected score
MIA 20.6 – 17.4 LV
Expected total
38.0
DolphinsThe matchupRaiders
−182Our fair odds+182
20.6Expected points17.4
−0.38Power rating−1.28
0−0Season record0−0
6−4Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · LV chance
Our model fair64.6%35.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins−18265%————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+18235%————
SpreadMIA by 3.3
MIAMiami Dolphins−3.3our margin————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.0
Over38.0our total————
Under38.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Dolphins by 3.3 expected
Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 5%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 9%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 7%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%
← MIA wins byLV wins by →
Miami Dolphins wins by 3 or more56%
Miami Dolphins wins by 7 or more37%
Miami Dolphins wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.0 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.568%
Total over 38.547%
Total over 45.527%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MIAMalik Willis · last 3 games: 85% completions, 139 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted
LVKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 60% completions, 168 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·LV
Jan 4 at NE
last game
Jan 4 vs KC
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
MIA·LV
−0.38
rating (0 = average)
−1.28
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
6−4
last 10
1−9

Rating Trend

MIA · LV · 63 days
Miami DolphinsLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · LV 1−2
Nov 17, 2024at MIAMIA 34 − 19
Nov 19, 2023at MIAMIA 20 − 13
Sep 26, 2021at LVLV 31 − 28

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 4at NE10 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs TB20 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025vs CIN21 − 45L
Dec 15, 2025at PIT15 − 28L
Dec 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025vs NO21 − 17W
Nov 16, 2025vs WSH16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs BUF30 − 13W
Oct 30, 2025vs BAL6 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at ATL34 − 10W

LV · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Jan 4vs KC14 − 12W
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG10 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025at HOU21 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at PHI0 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN17 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025at LAC14 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs CLE10 − 24L
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL16 − 33L
Nov 6, 2025at DEN7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs JAX29 − 30L