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Raiders at Chargers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 3:05 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final LV 26 – LAC 14
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LV0107926
LAC077014
Team box
LV·LAC
305
total yards
310
248
passing yards
183
57
rushing yards
127
14
first downs
17
4-14
third downs
5-14
1
turnovers
3
27:43
time of possession
32:17
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Kirk CousinsLV19/2925331
Justin HerbertLAC15/2719212
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Ashton JeantyLV21480
Omarion HamptonLAC23941
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tre TuckerLV51191
Tre' HarrisLAC1530

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +12
LV +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 4 · LV 12lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LV 34%, LAC 66% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
LAC by 10.9
Expected score
LAC 22.8 – 11.9 LV
Expected total
34.6
RaidersThe matchupChargers
+197Our fair odds−197
11.9Expected points22.8
−0.52Power rating−0.03
27.0Points / game14.0
13.0Allowed / game26.0
290Total yards / game268
4.3Yards / play5.3
160Passing yards / game187
1−0Season record0−1
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LV chance · LAC chance
Our model fair33.7%66.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LVLas Vegas Raiders+19734%————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−19766%————
SpreadLAC by 10.9
LVLas Vegas Raiders+10.9our margin————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−10.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 34.6
Over34.6our total————
Under34.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Chargers by 10.9 expected
Las Vegas Raiders by 48 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 47 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 46 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 45 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 44 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 43 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 42 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 5%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 6%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 48 points: <1%
← LV wins byLAC wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more72%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more58%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more49%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

34.6 expected
3 points: <1%4 points: <1%5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: 1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: 1%13 points: 1%14 points: 1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 2%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 2%21 points: 2%22 points: 2%23 points: 3%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 3%27 points: 3%28 points: 3%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 1%50 points: 1%51 points: 1%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: <1%61 points: <1%62 points: <1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 27.570%
Total over 34.549%
Total over 41.528%
Total from 28 to 4142%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LVKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 63% completions, 155 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 63% completions, 201 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LV·LAC
Sep 13 vs MIA
last game
Sep 13 vs ARI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
LV·LAC
−0.52
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
27.0
points / game
14.0
13.0
points allowed / game
26.0
1−0
season record
0−1
1−0
home record
0−1
0−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
5−5
290
total yards / game
268
4.3
yards / play
5.3
160
passing yards / game
187
130
rushing yards / game
81
21.0
first downs / game
17.0
2.0
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

LV · LAC · 2 days
Las Vegas RaidersLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAC 7−3
Nov 30, 2025at LACLAC 31 − 14
Sep 15, 2025at LVLAC 20 − 9
Jan 5, 2025at LVLAC 34 − 20
Sep 8, 2024at LACLAC 22 − 10
Dec 14, 2023at LVLV 63 − 21
Oct 1, 2023at LACLAC 24 − 17
Dec 4, 2022at LVLV 27 − 20
Sep 11, 2022at LACLAC 24 − 19
Jan 9, 2022at LVLV 35 − 32
Oct 4, 2021at LACLAC 28 − 14

LV · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Sep 13vs MIA27 − 13W
Jan 4vs KC14 − 12W
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG10 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025at HOU21 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at PHI0 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN17 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025at LAC14 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs CLE10 − 24L
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL16 − 33L
Nov 6, 2025at DEN7 − 10L

LAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Sep 13vs ARI14 − 26L
Jan 11at NE3 − 16L
Jan 4at DEN3 − 19L
Dec 27, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at DAL34 − 17W
Dec 14, 2025at KC16 − 13W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHI22 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025vs LV31 − 14W
Nov 16, 2025at JAX6 − 35L
Nov 9, 2025vs PIT25 − 10W