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Cardinals at Chargers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 3:25 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final ARI 26 – LAC 14
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ARI7631026
LAC707014
Team box
ARI·LAC
393
total yards
268
277
passing yards
187
116
rushing yards
81
23
first downs
17
6-14
third downs
2-8
0
turnovers
2
37:31
time of possession
22:29
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jacoby BrissettARI27/3727710
Justin HerbertLAC17/2720911
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tyler AllgeierARI17610
Omarion HamptonLAC12431
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Trey McBrideARI9951
Ladd McConkeyLAC5821

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +12
ARI +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 0 · ARI 12lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 27%, LAC 73% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
LAC by 9.9
Expected score
LAC 26.8 – 16.9 ARI
Expected total
43.6
CardinalsThe matchupChargers
+274Our fair odds−274
16.9Expected points26.8
−0.64Power rating+0.17
0−0Season record0−0
1−9Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · LAC chance
Our model fair26.8%73.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Cardinals+27427%————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−27473%————
SpreadLAC by 9.9
ARIArizona Cardinals+9.9our margin————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−9.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.6
Over43.6our total————
Under43.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Chargers by 9.9 expected
Arizona Cardinals by 48 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 47 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 46 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 45 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 44 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 43 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 42 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 5%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 6%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 48 points: <1%
← ARI wins byLAC wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more70%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more55%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more47%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.6 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 60% completions, 219 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 68% completions, 232 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·LAC
Jan 4 at LAR
last game
Jan 11 at NE
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
ARI·LAC
−0.64
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
1−9
last 10
6−4

Rating Trend

ARI · LAC · 63 days
Arizona CardinalsLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · LAC 1−1
Oct 21, 2024at ARIARI 17 − 15
Nov 27, 2022at ARILAC 25 − 24

ARI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Jan 4at LAR20 − 37L
Dec 28, 2025at CIN14 − 37L
Dec 21, 2025vs ATL19 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025at HOU20 − 40L
Dec 7, 2025vs LAR17 − 45L
Nov 30, 2025at TB17 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025vs JAX24 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025vs SF22 − 41L
Nov 9, 2025at SEA22 − 44L
Nov 3, 2025at DAL27 − 17W

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Jan 11at NE3 − 16L
Jan 4at DEN3 − 19L
Dec 27, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at DAL34 − 17W
Dec 14, 2025at KC16 − 13W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHI22 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025vs LV31 − 14W
Nov 16, 2025at JAX6 − 35L
Nov 9, 2025vs PIT25 − 10W
Nov 2, 2025at TEN27 − 20W