bayesRatings

Bears at Packers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Lambeau Field · Final CHI 7 – GB 31
← NFL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI07007
GB779831
Team box
CHI·GB
246
total yards
428
165
passing yards
358
81
rushing yards
70
17
first downs
18
4-14
third downs
4-12
5
turnovers
0
29:36
time of possession
30:24
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyson BagentCHI12/218702
Jordan LoveGB25/3136720
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
D'Andre SwiftCHI9431
MarShawn LloydGB10312
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Luther Burden IIICHI4470
Christian WatsonGB61432

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GB +24
CHI +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GB 24 · CHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 54%, GB 46% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
CHI by 3.4
Expected score
CHI 24.6 – 21.2 GB
Expected total
45.9
BearsThe matchupPackers
−116Our fair odds+116
24.6Expected points21.2
+0.37Power rating−0.02
28.0Points / game18.2
16.2Allowed / game26.2
429Total yards / game307
5.8Yards / play5.2
233Passing yards / game249
3−1Season record2−2
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · GB chance
Our model fair53.6%46.4%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears−11654%−11252.7%———
GBGreen Bay Packers+11646%−10751.8%———
SpreadCHI by 3.4
CHIChicago Bears−3.4our margin————
GBGreen Bay Packers+3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.9
Over45.9our total————
Under45.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bears by 3.4 expected
Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 5%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 9%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 2%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 7%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%
← CHI wins byGB wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more56%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more37%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.9 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CHITyson Bagent · last 3 games: 70% completions, 114 yds/game, 0 TD, 1 INTstarted
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 59% completions, 218 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·GB
Oct 4 vs NYJ
last game
Oct 4 at TB
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
CHI·GB
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
28.0
points / game
18.2
16.2
points allowed / game
26.2
3−1
season record
2−2
2−1
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
2−1
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
429
total yards / game
307
5.8
yards / play
5.2
233
passing yards / game
249
196
rushing yards / game
58
25.2
first downs / game
17.0
1.2
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

CHI · GB · 11 days
Chicago BearsGreen Bay Packers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GB 7−3
Jan 10at CHICHI 31 − 27post
Dec 20, 2025at CHICHI 22 − 16
Dec 7, 2025at GBGB 28 − 21
Jan 5, 2025at GBCHI 24 − 22
Nov 17, 2024at CHIGB 20 − 19
Jan 7, 2024at GBGB 17 − 9
Sep 10, 2023at CHIGB 38 − 20
Dec 4, 2022at CHIGB 28 − 19
Sep 18, 2022at GBGB 27 − 10
Dec 12, 2021at GBGB 45 − 30

CHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 4vs NYJ23 − 12W
Sep 28vs PHI27 − 7W
Sep 20vs MIN3 − 9L
Sep 13at CAR59 − 37W
Jan 18vs LAR17 − 20L
Jan 10vs GB31 − 27W
Jan 4vs DET16 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at SF38 − 42L
Dec 20, 2025vs GB22 − 16W
Dec 14, 2025vs CLE31 − 3W

GB · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 4at TB17 − 14W
Sep 24vs ATL14 − 35L
Sep 20at NYJ20 − 17W
Sep 13at MIN22 − 39L
Jan 10at CHI27 − 31L
Jan 4at MIN3 − 16L
Dec 27, 2025vs BAL24 − 41L
Dec 20, 2025at CHI16 − 22L
Dec 14, 2025at DEN26 − 34L
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI28 − 21W