bayesRatings

Vikings at Bears

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 12:00 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final MIN 9 – CHI 3
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN33039
CHI30003
Team box
MIN·CHI
246
total yards
297
127
passing yards
163
119
rushing yards
134
11
first downs
17
3-13
third downs
5-15
0
turnovers
2
27:19
time of possession
32:41
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Carson WentzMIN11/2014300
Caleb WilliamsCHI15/2613801
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Aaron Jones Sr.MIN231050
Kyle MonangaiCHI10470
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Justin JeffersonMIN3550
D'Andre SwiftCHI5540

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +6
MIN +6
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 0 · MIN 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 45%, CHI 55% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
CHI by 1.3
Expected score
CHI 25.6 – 24.3 MIN
Expected total
49.9
VikingsThe matchupBears
+122Our fair odds−122
24.3Expected points25.6
+0.27Power rating+0.24
39.0Points / game59.0
22.0Allowed / game37.0
239Total yards / game552
3.9Yards / play7.9
132Passing yards / game261
1−0Season record1−0
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CHI chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings+12245%————
CHIChicago Bears−12255%————
SpreadCHI by 1.3
MINMinnesota Vikings+1.3our margin————
CHIChicago Bears−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.9
Over49.9our total————
Under49.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bears by 1.3 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 9%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%
← MIN wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more47%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more31%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.9 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.568%
Total over 49.548%
Total over 56.532%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MINCarson Wentz · last 3 games: 60% completions, 197 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 57% completions, 296 yds/game, 6 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CHI
Sep 13 vs GB
last game
Sep 13 at CAR
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
MIN·CHI
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
39.0
points / game
59.0
22.0
points allowed / game
37.0
1−0
season record
1−0
1−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
1−0
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
239
total yards / game
552
3.9
yards / play
7.9
132
passing yards / game
261
107
rushing yards / game
291
19.0
first downs / game
26.0
1.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

MIN · CHI · 2 days
Minnesota VikingsChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 2−8
Nov 16, 2025at MINCHI 19 − 17
Sep 8, 2025at CHIMIN 27 − 24
Dec 16, 2024at MINMIN 30 − 12
Nov 24, 2024at CHIMIN 30 − 27
Nov 27, 2023at MINCHI 12 − 10
Oct 15, 2023at CHIMIN 19 − 13
Jan 8, 2023at CHIMIN 29 − 13
Oct 9, 2022at MINMIN 29 − 22
Jan 9, 2022at MINMIN 31 − 17
Dec 20, 2021at CHIMIN 17 − 9

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W6
Sep 13vs GB39 − 22W
Jan 4vs GB16 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025vs DET23 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at NYG16 − 13W
Dec 14, 2025at DAL34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025vs WSH31 − 0W
Nov 30, 2025at SEA0 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at GB6 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs CHI17 − 19L
Nov 9, 2025vs BAL19 − 27L

CHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 13at CAR59 − 37W
Jan 18vs LAR17 − 20L
Jan 10vs GB31 − 27W
Jan 4vs DET16 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at SF38 − 42L
Dec 20, 2025vs GB22 − 16W
Dec 14, 2025vs CLE31 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025at GB21 − 28L
Nov 28, 2025at PHI24 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025vs PIT31 − 28W