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Packers at Buccaneers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · Final GB 17 – TB 14
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GB0107017
TB070714
Team box
GB·TB
283
total yards
275
197
passing yards
134
86
rushing yards
141
15
first downs
19
2-10
third downs
5-12
2
turnovers
2
30:10
time of possession
29:50
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB22/3019721
Jalon DanielsTB19/2714812
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kaleb JohnsonGB8420
Bucky IrvingTB16610
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Christian WatsonGB3470
Cade OttonTB4370

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +10
GB +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TB 0 · GB 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 49%, TB 51% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
TB by 0.2
Expected score
TB 24.0 – 23.8 GB
Expected total
47.8
PackersThe matchupBuccaneers
+104Our fair odds−104
23.8Expected points24.0
−0.08Power rating−0.28
18.7Points / game20.7
30.3Allowed / game26.3
315Total yards / game279
5.2Yards / play4.7
267Passing yards / game185
1−2Season record0−3
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · TB chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers+10449%————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−10451%————
SpreadTB by 0.2
GBGreen Bay Packers+0.2our margin————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.8
Over47.8our total————
Under47.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 0.2 expected
Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 5%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 9%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 7%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%
← GB wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more43%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more28%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more20%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.8 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.568%
Total over 47.548%
Total over 54.531%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 52% completions, 281 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted
TBJalon Daniels · last 1 game: 0% completions, 0 yds/game, 0 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·TB
Sep 24 vs ATL
last game
Sep 27 vs MIN
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
GB·TB
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.28
18.7
points / game
20.7
30.3
points allowed / game
26.3
1−2
season record
0−3
0−1
home record
0−2
1−1
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
2−8
315
total yards / game
279
5.2
yards / play
4.7
267
passing yards / game
185
49
rushing yards / game
94
17.7
first downs / game
15.7
1.3
turnovers / game
2.3

Rating Trend

GB · TB · 8 days
Green Bay PackersTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · TB 1−1
Dec 17, 2023at GBTB 34 − 20
Sep 25, 2022at TBGB 14 − 12

GB · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 24vs ATL14 − 35L
Sep 20at NYJ20 − 17W
Sep 13at MIN22 − 39L
Jan 10at CHI27 − 31L
Jan 4at MIN3 − 16L
Dec 27, 2025vs BAL24 − 41L
Dec 20, 2025at CHI16 − 22L
Dec 14, 2025at DEN26 − 34L
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI28 − 21W
Nov 27, 2025at DET31 − 24W

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Sep 27vs MIN16 − 23L
Sep 20vs CLE19 − 23L
Sep 13at CIN27 − 33L
Jan 3vs CAR16 − 14W
Dec 28, 2025at MIA17 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at CAR20 − 23L
Dec 11, 2025vs ATL28 − 29L
Dec 7, 2025vs NO20 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025vs ARI20 − 17W
Nov 23, 2025at LAR7 − 34L