bayesRatings

Vikings at Buccaneers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 3:05 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · Final MIN 23 – TB 16
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN1070623
TB733316
Team box
MIN·TB
230
total yards
243
152
passing yards
186
78
rushing yards
57
9
first downs
11
2-15
third downs
2-17
1
turnovers
2
29:03
time of possession
30:57
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Kyler MurrayMIN15/2916811
Baker MayfieldTB17/3421711
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Aaron Jones Sr.MIN17580
Bucky IrvingTB15460
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jordan AddisonMIN5901
Emeka EgbukaTB5620

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +10
MIN +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TB 0 · MIN 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 60%, TB 40% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
MIN by 3.3
Expected score
MIN 22.2 – 19.0 TB
Expected total
41.2
VikingsThe matchupBuccaneers
−147Our fair odds+147
22.2Expected points19.0
+0.39Power rating−0.23
24.0Points / game23.0
12.5Allowed / game28.0
242Total yards / game298
4.3Yards / play5.2
130Passing yards / game184
2−0Season record0−2
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · TB chance
Our model fair59.5%40.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings−14760%————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+14740%————
SpreadMIN by 3.3
MINMinnesota Vikings−3.3our margin————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.2
Over41.2our total————
Under41.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 3.3 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 9%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 7%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%
← MIN wins byTB wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more56%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more37%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.2 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.568%
Total over 41.547%
Total over 48.528%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MINKyler Murray · last 3 games: 69% completions, 146 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 71% completions, 200 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·TB
Sep 20 at CHI
last game
Sep 20 vs CLE
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
MIN·TB
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
24.0
points / game
23.0
12.5
points allowed / game
28.0
2−0
season record
0−2
1−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
0−1
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
2−8
242
total yards / game
298
4.3
yards / play
5.2
130
passing yards / game
184
113
rushing yards / game
113
15.0
first downs / game
18.0
0.5
turnovers / game
2.5

Rating Trend

MIN · TB · 5 days
Minnesota VikingsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · TB 1−0
Sep 10, 2023at MINTB 20 − 17

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W7
Sep 20at CHI9 − 3W
Sep 13vs GB39 − 22W
Jan 4vs GB16 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025vs DET23 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at NYG16 − 13W
Dec 14, 2025at DAL34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025vs WSH31 − 0W
Nov 30, 2025at SEA0 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at GB6 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs CHI17 − 19L

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Sep 20vs CLE19 − 23L
Sep 13at CIN27 − 33L
Jan 3vs CAR16 − 14W
Dec 28, 2025at MIA17 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at CAR20 − 23L
Dec 11, 2025vs ATL28 − 29L
Dec 7, 2025vs NO20 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025vs ARI20 − 17W
Nov 23, 2025at LAR7 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025at BUF32 − 44L