bayesRatings

Browns at Buccaneers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · Final CLE 23 – TB 19
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE3310723
TB637319
Team box
CLE·TB
267
total yards
313
223
passing yards
176
44
rushing yards
137
15
first downs
17
5-13
third downs
7-16
0
turnovers
1
29:22
time of possession
30:38
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Deshaun WatsonCLE24/3023820
Baker MayfieldTB21/3418211
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Deshaun WatsonCLE7220
Bucky IrvingTB17890
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Denzel BostonCLE5951
Tez JohnsonTB1490

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +10
CLE +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TB 10 · CLE 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 35%, TB 65% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
TB by 10.6
Expected score
TB 26.2 – 15.6 CLE
Expected total
41.7
BrownsThe matchupBuccaneers
+188Our fair odds−188
15.6Expected points26.2
−0.56Power rating−0.11
10.0Points / game27.0
34.0Allowed / game33.0
272Total yards / game282
5.6Yards / play5.4
185Passing yards / game193
0−1Season record0−1
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · TB chance
Our model fair34.7%65.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns+18835%————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−18865%————
SpreadTB by 10.6
CLECleveland Browns+10.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−10.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.7
Over41.7our total————
Under41.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10.6 expected
Cleveland Browns by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 5%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 6%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 43 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 44 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 45 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 46 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 47 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 48 points: <1%
← CLE wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more71%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more57%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more48%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.7 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.569%
Total over 41.548%
Total over 48.529%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CLEDeshaun Watson · last 3 games: 76% completions, 167 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTstarted
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 77% completions, 255 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·TB
Sep 13 at JAX
last game
Sep 13 at CIN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
CLE·TB
−0.56
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
10.0
points / game
27.0
34.0
points allowed / game
33.0
0−1
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
2−8
272
total yards / game
282
5.6
yards / play
5.4
185
passing yards / game
193
87
rushing yards / game
89
14.0
first downs / game
19.0
2.0
turnovers / game
4.0

Rating Trend

CLE · TB · 2 days
Cleveland BrownsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · TB 0−1
Nov 27, 2022at CLECLE 23 − 17

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 13at JAX10 − 34L
Jan 4at CIN20 − 18W
Dec 28, 2025vs PIT13 − 6W
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF20 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at CHI3 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs TEN29 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs SF8 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at LV24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs BAL16 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025at NYJ20 − 27L

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Sep 13at CIN27 − 33L
Jan 3vs CAR16 − 14W
Dec 28, 2025at MIA17 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at CAR20 − 23L
Dec 11, 2025vs ATL28 − 29L
Dec 7, 2025vs NO20 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025vs ARI20 − 17W
Nov 23, 2025at LAR7 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025at BUF32 − 44L
Nov 9, 2025vs NE23 − 28L