bayesRatings

Browns at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium · Final CLE 10 – JAX 34
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE003710
JAX141010034
Team box
CLE·JAX
272
total yards
360
185
passing yards
234
87
rushing yards
126
14
first downs
23
1-8
third downs
5-10
2
turnovers
0
26:09
time of possession
33:51
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Deshaun WatsonCLE16/2220511
Trevor LawrenceJAX18/2324540
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Deshaun WatsonCLE6380
Bhayshul TutenJAX15660
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Denzel BostonCLE2591
Parker WashingtonJAX5831

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +31
CLE +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 31 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 18%, JAX 82% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
JAX by 15.0
Expected score
JAX 28.2 – 13.2 CLE
Expected total
41.5
BrownsThe matchupJaguars
+456Our fair odds−456
13.2Expected points28.2
−0.83Power rating+0.53
0−0Season record0−0
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · JAX chance
Our model fair18.0%82.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns+45618%————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−45682%————
SpreadJAX by 15.0
CLECleveland Browns+15our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−15our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.5
Over41.5our total————
Under41.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 15.0 expected
Cleveland Browns by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 4%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 6%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 5%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 43 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 44 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 45 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 46 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 47 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 48 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 49 points: <1%
← CLE wins byJAX wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more82%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more69%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more61%
Within 3 points either way15%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.5 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.569%
Total over 41.548%
Total over 48.529%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CLEDeshaun Watson · last 3 games: 68% completions, 140 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 65% completions, 242 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·JAX
Jan 4 at CIN
last game
Jan 11 vs BUF
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
CLE·JAX
−0.83
rating (0 = average)
+0.53
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
3−7
last 10
8−2

Rating Trend

CLE · JAX · 63 days
Cleveland BrownsJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · JAX 0−2
Sep 15, 2024at JAXCLE 18 − 13
Dec 10, 2023at CLECLE 31 − 27

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Jan 4at CIN20 − 18W
Dec 28, 2025vs PIT13 − 6W
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF20 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at CHI3 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs TEN29 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs SF8 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at LV24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs BAL16 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025at NYJ20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at NE13 − 32L

JAX · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Jan 11vs BUF24 − 27L
Jan 4vs TEN41 − 7W
Dec 28, 2025at IND23 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025at DEN34 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025vs NYJ48 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025vs IND36 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025at TEN25 − 3W
Nov 23, 2025at ARI27 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025vs LAC35 − 6W
Nov 9, 2025at HOU29 − 36L