bayesRatings

Jets at Bears

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final NYJ 12 – CHI 23
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYJ033612
CHI767323
Team box
NYJ·CHI
157
total yards
492
98
passing yards
260
59
rushing yards
232
7
first downs
34
0-7
third downs
7-15
0
turnovers
2
17:15
time of possession
42:45
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Geno SmithNYJ8/1511910
Tyson BagentCHI25/3426801
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Braelon AllenNYJ14590
Kyle MonangaiCHI301462
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Isaiah WilliamsNYJ2731
Rome OdunzeCHI6940

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +17
NYJ +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 17 · NYJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYJ 25%, CHI 75% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
CHI by 12.1
Expected score
CHI 29.4 – 17.3 NYJ
Expected total
46.8
JetsThe matchupBears
+293Our fair odds−293
17.3Expected points29.4
−0.66Power rating+0.29
21.3Points / game29.7
20.3Allowed / game17.7
329Total yards / game408
5.1Yards / play5.8
237Passing yards / game224
1−2Season record2−1
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · CHI chance
Our model fair25.5%74.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+29325%————
CHIChicago Bears−29375%————
SpreadCHI by 12.1
NYJNew York Jets+12.1our margin————
CHIChicago Bears−12.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.8
Over46.8our total————
Under46.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bears by 12.1 expected
New York Jets by 49 points: <1%New York Jets by 48 points: <1%New York Jets by 47 points: <1%New York Jets by 46 points: <1%New York Jets by 45 points: <1%New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 18 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: <1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 7 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 1%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 3 points: 5%New York Jets by 2 points: 1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 6%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 29 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 32 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 35 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 47 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 48 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 49 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more75%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more61%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more52%
Within 3 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.8 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYJGeno Smith · last 3 games: 75% completions, 261 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
CHITyson Bagent · last 3 games: 62% completions, 34 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·CHI
Sep 27 at DET
last game
Sep 28 vs PHI
6 days
days of rest
5 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
NYJ·CHI
−0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
21.3
points / game
29.7
20.3
points allowed / game
17.7
1−2
season record
2−1
0−1
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
1−0
L2
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
329
total yards / game
408
5.1
yards / play
5.8
237
passing yards / game
224
92
rushing yards / game
184
20.7
first downs / game
22.3
0.3
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

NYJ · CHI · 8 days
New York JetsChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CHI 0−1
Nov 27, 2022at NYJNYJ 31 − 10

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Sep 27at DET24 − 31L
Sep 20vs GB17 − 20L
Sep 13at TEN23 − 10W
Jan 4at BUF8 − 35L
Dec 28, 2025vs NE10 − 42L
Dec 21, 2025at NO6 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at JAX20 − 48L
Dec 7, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL27 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025at BAL10 − 23L

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 28vs PHI27 − 7W
Sep 20vs MIN3 − 9L
Sep 13at CAR59 − 37W
Jan 18vs LAR17 − 20L
Jan 10vs GB31 − 27W
Jan 4vs DET16 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at SF38 − 42L
Dec 20, 2025vs GB22 − 16W
Dec 14, 2025vs CLE31 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025at GB21 − 28L