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Jets at Lions

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Ford Field · Final NYJ 24 – DET 31
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYJ0731424
DET01071431
Team box
NYJ·DET
335
total yards
381
277
passing yards
250
58
rushing yards
131
22
first downs
24
6-12
third downs
5-10
1
turnovers
0
28:30
time of possession
31:30
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Geno SmithNYJ31/3732130
Jared GoffDET25/3226920
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Breece HallNYJ13320
Jahmyr GibbsDET20992
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Garrett WilsonNYJ101071
Isaac TeSlaaDET3660

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +14
NYJ +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 14 · NYJ 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYJ 29%, DET 71% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
DET by 11.0
Expected score
DET 32.8 – 21.8 NYJ
Expected total
54.5
JetsThe matchupLions
+249Our fair odds−249
21.8Expected points32.8
−0.61Power rating+0.20
20.0Points / game31.0
15.0Allowed / game35.5
326Total yards / game362
4.9Yards / play5.4
216Passing yards / game246
1−1Season record1−1
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · DET chance
Our model fair28.6%71.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+24929%————
DETDetroit Lions−24971%————
SpreadDET by 11.0
NYJNew York Jets+11our margin————
DETDetroit Lions−11our margin————
Totalwe expect 54.5
Over54.5our total————
Under54.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 11.0 expected
New York Jets by 49 points: <1%New York Jets by 48 points: <1%New York Jets by 47 points: <1%New York Jets by 46 points: <1%New York Jets by 45 points: <1%New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 18 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: <1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 7 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 3 points: 5%New York Jets by 2 points: 1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 6%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 29 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 32 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 42 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 43 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 44 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 45 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 46 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 47 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 48 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 49 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more72%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more58%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more49%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

54.5 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 47.565%
Total over 54.548%
Total over 61.532%
Total from 48 to 6133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYJGeno Smith · last 3 games: 71% completions, 213 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 66% completions, 288 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·DET
Sep 20 vs GB
last game
Sep 17 at BUF
6 days
days of rest
9 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
NYJ·DET
−0.61
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
20.0
points / game
31.0
15.0
points allowed / game
35.5
1−1
season record
1−1
0−1
home record
1−0
1−0
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
4−6
326
total yards / game
362
4.9
yards / play
5.4
216
passing yards / game
246
110
rushing yards / game
116
20.0
first downs / game
25.0
0.0
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

NYJ · DET · 5 days
New York JetsDetroit Lions
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DET 1−0
Dec 18, 2022at NYJDET 20 − 17

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Sep 20vs GB17 − 20L
Sep 13at TEN23 − 10W
Jan 4at BUF8 − 35L
Dec 28, 2025vs NE10 − 42L
Dec 21, 2025at NO6 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at JAX20 − 48L
Dec 7, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL27 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025at BAL10 − 23L
Nov 13, 2025at NE14 − 27L

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 17at BUF31 − 41L
Sep 13vs NO31 − 30W
Jan 4at CHI19 − 16W
Dec 25, 2025at MIN10 − 23L
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT24 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at LAR34 − 41L
Dec 4, 2025vs DAL44 − 30W
Nov 27, 2025vs GB24 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYG34 − 27W
Nov 16, 2025at PHI9 − 16L