bayesRatings

Lions at Bills

NFL · Thursday, Sep 17 · 7:15 PM CT · Highmark Stadium · Final DET 31 – BUF 41
← NFL / Sep 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET01071431
BUF14137741
Team box
DET·BUF
355
total yards
446
289
passing yards
243
66
rushing yards
203
24
first downs
34
4-11
third downs
9-12
0
turnovers
0
26:15
time of possession
33:45
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jared GoffDET26/3832740
Josh AllenBUF20/3124830
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jahmyr GibbsDET16520
James Cook IIIBUF211351
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET91422
Dalton KincaidBUF7951

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +21
DET +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BUF 21 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 38%, BUF 62% · Updated Sep 17

Expected margin
BUF by 2.0
Expected score
BUF 31.4 – 29.4 DET
Expected total
60.7
LionsThe matchupBills
+160Our fair odds−160
29.4Expected points31.4
+0.27Power rating+0.54
31.0Points / game36.0
30.0Allowed / game31.0
369Total yards / game409
5.1Yards / play7.9
204Passing yards / game323
1−0Season record1−0
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · BUF chance
Our model fair38.5%61.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions+16038%————
BUFBuffalo Bills−16062%————
SpreadBUF by 2.0
DETDetroit Lions+2our margin————
BUFBuffalo Bills−2our margin————
Totalwe expect 60.7
Over60.7our total————
Under60.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 2.0 expected
Detroit Lions by 41 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 15 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 8%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 7%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: <1%
← DET wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more49%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more33%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

60.7 expected
23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: <1%31 points: <1%32 points: <1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 1%41 points: 1%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 3%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 3%66 points: 3%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 2%78 points: 2%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: 1%84 points: 1%85 points: <1%86 points: 1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: 1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: 1%97 points: <1%98 points: <1%99 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 53.566%
Total over 60.551%
Total over 67.535%
Total from 54 to 6732%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 65% completions, 245 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 71% completions, 297 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·BUF
Sep 13 vs NO
last game
Sep 13 at HOU
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
DET·BUF
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
31.0
points / game
36.0
30.0
points allowed / game
31.0
1−0
season record
1−0
1−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
1−0
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
369
total yards / game
409
5.1
yards / play
7.9
204
passing yards / game
323
165
rushing yards / game
86
26.0
first downs / game
20.0
1.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · BUF 2−0
Dec 15, 2024at DETBUF 48 − 42
Nov 24, 2022at DETBUF 28 − 25

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 13vs NO31 − 30W
Jan 4at CHI19 − 16W
Dec 25, 2025at MIN10 − 23L
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT24 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at LAR34 − 41L
Dec 4, 2025vs DAL44 − 30W
Nov 27, 2025vs GB24 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYG34 − 27W
Nov 16, 2025at PHI9 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025at WSH44 − 22W

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 13at HOU36 − 31W
Jan 17at DEN30 − 33L
Jan 11at JAX27 − 24W
Jan 4vs NYJ35 − 8W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI12 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at CLE23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NE35 − 31W
Dec 7, 2025vs CIN39 − 34W
Nov 30, 2025at PIT26 − 7W
Nov 20, 2025at HOU19 − 23L