bayesRatings

Eagles at Bears

NFL · Monday, Sep 28 · 7:15 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final PHI 7 – CHI 27
← NFL / Sep 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI07007
CHI7310727
Team box
PHI·CHI
248
total yards
375
141
passing yards
247
107
rushing yards
128
14
first downs
24
2-9
third downs
5-13
3
turnovers
0
23:07
time of possession
36:53
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jalen HurtsPHI16/2515301
Case KeenumCHI24/3424720
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Saquon BarkleyPHI15820
D'Andre SwiftCHI20840
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
DeVonta SmithPHI6650
Kalif RaymondCHI6901

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +20
PHI +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 20 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 50%, CHI 50% · Updated Sep 28

Expected margin
CHI by 0.0
Expected score
CHI 23.1 – 23.1 PHI
Expected total
46.2
EaglesThe matchupBears
+102Our fair odds−102
23.1Expected points23.1
+0.34Power rating+0.17
24.0Points / game31.0
21.0Allowed / game23.0
330Total yards / game424
5.3Yards / play6.1
217Passing yards / game212
2−0Season record1−1
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · CHI chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles+10250%————
CHIChicago Bears−10250%————
SpreadCHI by 0.0
PHIPhiladelphia EaglesPKour margin————
CHIChicago BearsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 46.2
Over46.2our total————
Under46.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 5%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 9%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%
← PHI wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more43%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more27%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more20%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.2 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.567%
Total over 46.547%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 62% completions, 212 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted
CHICase Keenum · last 3 games: 62% completions, 100 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·CHI
Sep 20 at TEN
last game
Sep 20 vs MIN
7 days
days of rest
7 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
PHI·CHI
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
24.0
points / game
31.0
21.0
points allowed / game
23.0
2−0
season record
1−1
1−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
1−0
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
330
total yards / game
424
5.3
yards / play
6.1
217
passing yards / game
212
112
rushing yards / game
212
16.5
first downs / game
21.5
1.0
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

PHI · CHI · 6 days
Philadelphia EaglesChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CHI 1−1
Nov 28, 2025at PHICHI 24 − 15
Dec 18, 2022at CHIPHI 25 − 20

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 20at TEN24 − 20W
Sep 13vs WSH24 − 22W
Jan 11vs SF19 − 23L
Jan 4vs WSH17 − 24L
Dec 28, 2025at BUF13 − 12W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH29 − 18W
Dec 14, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Dec 8, 2025at LAC19 − 22L
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI15 − 24L
Nov 23, 2025at DAL21 − 24L

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 20vs MIN3 − 9L
Sep 13at CAR59 − 37W
Jan 18vs LAR17 − 20L
Jan 10vs GB31 − 27W
Jan 4vs DET16 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at SF38 − 42L
Dec 20, 2025vs GB22 − 16W
Dec 14, 2025vs CLE31 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025at GB21 − 28L
Nov 28, 2025at PHI24 − 15W